How France works
France Relance grants, firm by firm
Whether France Relance industrial grants changed the size or profitability of the firms that won them.
France Relance paid industrial firms to invest in 2020-2022, through calls for projects whose winners are published. This page compares each winner with matched firms of the same sector, turnover, margin and age, among firms that survived. By 2024 the winners' turnover had changed by relative to their matches, and their operating margin by : neither can be distinguished from zero. Both compare firms still publishing accounts, and fewer winners did by 2024, so they speak for surviving winners only.
Evidence
France Relance paid industrial firms to invest in 2020-2022, through calls for projects whose winners are published. Each winner with public accounts is compared with firms of the same sector (NAF division) drawn from a random tenth of all employer firms, with the same turnover in 2017, 2018 and 2019, the same operating margin and the same age. The comparison firms were drawn among firms still active in 2026, so every result compares survivors: what the grants did to the firms that closed, or to which firms survive, is not measured. The State kept the applications it turned down but has not published them: the Cour des comptes counted applications for the projects selected in the relocation call, and the ministry has compared winners with rejected applicants only in medians, so this page compares winners with similar firms instead, and before the grants those firms' turnover moved like the winners' over two years but not over one, as the placebo below shows.
Show the data as a table
| Outcome | Design | Year | Estimate | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | Grant winners, 2020-2022 | 2024 | +2.3% | -4.7% to +9.4% |
| Turnover | Placebo: fake start in 2017 | 2019 | -0.5% | -5.7% to +4.8% |
| EBITDA margin | Grant winners, 2020-2022 | 2024 | +1.0% | -0.3% to +2.4% |
| EBITDA margin | Placebo: fake start in 2017 | 2019 | -0.3% | -1.2% to +0.7% |
| Share publishing accounts | Grant winners, 2020-2022 | 2024 | -7.6% | -11.6% to -3.5% |
| Share publishing accounts | Placebo: fake start in 2017 | 2019 | +0.0% | +0.0% to +0.0% |
By 2024 the winners' turnover had moved by relative to their matches, and their operating margin by ; neither can be distinguished from zero at 95%. Before the grants, the placebo, with a fake start in 2017, finds the winners' turnover above their matches' in 2018, a gap whose 95% interval excludes zero, and in 2019. Both 2024 figures are measured on firms still publishing accounts, and fewer winners did: by 2024 the share publishing had changed by against their matches, so the turnover and margin figures compare a selected group of surviving winners. The Cour des comptes found for the earlier decarbonisation grants in 2026 that investment rose in the year of the grant, with no measurable effect on employment or value added. Investment itself is not in the open accounts.
Accounts are the open BCE/INPI financial ratios; employment and value added by firm are not open. Winners are kept whatever became of them, while the comparison sample was drawn among firms active in 2026: a winner that closed leaves the turnover and margin figures when its accounts stop, and no closed firm can stand against it, so closures cannot be measured as an outcome. A firm may also stop publishing by choosing confidentiality. Matching draws half the winners each time, because there are only 1,294 of them. Intervals are 95% confidence intervals with standard errors clustered by firm. The code is analysis/firms.ml and the results are in results.csv.
Its own aims
Measured against what it was meant to do
Each aim as the scheme's own texts state it, quoted, then every outcome this site measured against it, with the same design as above: the matched comparison, or the synthetic control. Positive, negative and null results are listed alike. Where no open dataset covers an aim, the dataset it would need is named, with why it is not open. Before them, the article of law that founds the scheme, quoted from Légifrance or the parliamentary record with the dates its wording was in force; after them, the indicators the State set for the programme, as the State reports them, with their source: this site shows them but has not checked them.
In the law, or the nearest official text
Each aim as the founding text states it, with the article and the dates that wording was in force. Where an article states no aim, a line says so, and the aim is quoted from the nearest official text that states one: the bill's explanatory memorandum or impact study, a government instruction, or the programme's performance report.
Bring high-value production to France to create jobs and secure critical supply chains
« accompagner les entreprises pour la localisation de leur production à forte valeur ajoutée sur le territoire français afin de créer de nouveaux emplois et de sécuriser les approvisionnements critiques de certaines chaînes de valeur d’intérêt stratégique »Rapport annuel de performances 2024, mission « Plan de relance », programme 363 « Compétitivité », bilan stratégique, RAP 2024 (2025)
No article of the LFR 3 2020 (loi n° 2020-935) or the LFI 2021 (loi n° 2020-1721) states an aim; the mission exists only as credits (état B, art. 94). The PAP 2021 could not be obtained, so the programme's own performance report is used.
Relocate industrial production to the regions (technological sovereignty, resilience)
« Un objectif spécifique de relocalisation de la production industrielle dans les territoires est poursuivi au titre de la souveraineté technologique et de la résilience de l’économie (action n° 2), dans la continuité d’actions engagées dès 2020. »Rapport annuel de performances 2024, mission « Plan de relance », programme 363 « Compétitivité », bilan stratégique, RAP 2024 (2025)
Same as above; the following sentence names the territorial fund run with the Regions under Territoires d'industrie.
Secure strategic supplies and support industrial jobs, measured by jobs created or kept
« L’objectif poursuivi est la sécurisation des approvisionnements dans les secteurs stratégiques et le soutien l’emploi industriel, mesurables notamment par le nombre d’emplois créés ou confortés grâce aux dispositifs de relocalisations sectorielles ou territoriales. »Rapport annuel de performances 2024, mission « Plan de relance », programme 363 « Compétitivité », bilan stratégique, RAP 2024 (2025)
Quoted as printed (« le soutien l’emploi »); it links the aim to indicator P363-3-1.
Decarbonise industry: electrification and less energy-hungry processes
« L’accompagnement des entreprises dans la transition écologique passe aussi par la décarbonation de l’industrie, avec un accompagnement dans l’électrification et la transition vers l’utilisation de procédés moins énergivores par le biais d’appels à projets, ou encore le soutien à l’économie circulaire et aux circuits courts. »Rapport annuel de performances 2024, mission « Plan de relance », programme 362 « Écologie », bilan stratégique, RAP 2024 (2025)
P362 has no indicator on industry; its five objectives cover credit use, public buildings, housing, modal share and new-car CO2.
Reduce dependence on suppliers outside France and Europe
« diminuer le degré de dépendance vis-à-vis de fournisseurs hors France et Europe »Sénat, rapport général n° 138 (2020-2021), tome III, annexe 22 « Plan de relance » (M. Jean-François Husson), citant le cahier des charges de l'appel à projets, volet relocalisation, 19 novembre 2020
The Government's call for projects, quoted by the Senate rapporteur; secondary.
Diversify, modernise and green the car industry
« Une ouverture de 200 M€ de crédits est également proposée pour la mise en place d’un fonds visant à accélérer la diversification, la modernisation et la transformation écologique de la filière automobile. »Projet de loi de finances rectificative pour 2020 (troisième), n° 3074, adopté comme loi n° 2020-935 du 30 juillet 2020, exposé général des motifs, déposé en juin 2020
The law (JORFTEXT000042176557) creates no fund by article; the fund is a credit opening on programme 134 justified in the bill.
Diversify, modernise and green the production of aeronautics SMEs and mid-caps
« le soutien, à hauteur de 100 M€ en AE et 50 M€ en CP, des projets de diversification, de modernisation et d’amélioration de la performance environnementale des procédés de production des PME et ETI de la filière de l’aéronautique civile. »Projet de loi de finances rectificative pour 2020 (troisième), n° 3074, adopté comme loi n° 2020-935 du 30 juillet 2020, motifs des ouvertures, programme 134, déposé en juin 2020
As above.
In the programme's texts
Support industrial investment in the regions
« Soutien à l’investissement industriel dans les territoires »Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de la Relance (DGE), Plan de relance - Projets industriels : liste, géolocalisation et description synthétique des projets (description du jeu de données), Description, liste des mesures (consultée le 15 octobre 2026), 8 avril 2022
- Turnover: (95% interval -4.7 to +9.4).
- EBITDA margin: (95% interval -0.3 to +2.4).
- Share publishing accounts: (95% interval -11.6 to -3.5).
Not covered: Investment itself: firms' fixed assets are in the full annual accounts that INPI distributes only to registered users, not in the open financial ratios this study reads.
(Re)locate production in critical sectors
« (Re)localisation dans les secteurs critiques »Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de la Relance (DGE), Plan de relance - Projets industriels : liste, géolocalisation et description synthétique des projets (description du jeu de données), Description, liste des mesures (consultée le 15 octobre 2026), 8 avril 2022
- Turnover: (95% interval -4.7 to +9.4).
Not covered: Relocation itself, production moved back from abroad: it needs each firm's imports, which customs (DGDDI) hold firm by firm under statistical secrecy and publish only by product and country.
Decarbonise industry
« accélérer la transition écologique et la décarbonation de l’industrie »Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de la Relance (DGE), Plan de relance - Projets industriels : liste, géolocalisation et description synthétique des projets (description du jeu de données), Description, mesures de décarbonation (consultée le 15 octobre 2026), 8 avril 2022
- Industrial carbon dioxide emissions: (95% interval -7.1 to +13.8).
The State's own indicators
The indicators the State reports for the programme, with the latest value and the target as it prints them, the report and page they come from, and the open data that could measure each at this site's unit.
| Indicator | Latest value | Target | This site's measure | Source | Open data that could measure it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P363-3-1, programme 363Nombre d’emplois créés ou confortés grâce aux dispositifs de relocalisations territoriales | 6 000 (announced jobs objective of the year's laureates, not jobs counted)2023 | Sans objet2024 | not measured | RAP 2024 (PLRG 2024), mission Plan de relance, programme 363 « Compétitivité », indicateur 3.1; programme closed after 2024p. 71; 2022: 60 000; 2024: « Non déterminé »; the commentary says the territorial figures « correspondent, pour chaque année, à l’objectif de nombre d’emplois créés ou confortés » (copy: data/literature/law/rap-2024-plan-de-relance.txt) | Partly: the DGE's list of laureates (data.economie.gouv.fr plan-de-relance, read by this site) names the firms, and Sirene gives each firm's headcount band, but the jobs announced or counted per project are not published.The State's figures are the jobs its laureates announced, not jobs counted, and no open file gives jobs announced or counted per project: the DGE's laureate list names the firms and Sirene gives only their headcount band. |
| P363-3-1, programme 363Nombre d’emplois créés ou confortés grâce aux dispositifs de relocalisations sectorielles | 1 2002022 | Sans objet2024 | not measured | RAP 2024 (PLRG 2024), mission Plan de relance, programme 363 « Compétitivité », indicateur 3.1; programme closed after 2024p. 71; 2023: « Non connu »; 2024: « Non déterminé » (copy: data/literature/law/rap-2024-plan-de-relance.txt) | Partly: as above; firms' headcount bands are open (Sirene), jobs per project are not.The State's figures are the jobs its laureates announced, not jobs counted, and no open file gives jobs announced or counted per project: the DGE's laureate list names the firms and Sirene gives only their headcount band. |
| P363-2-1, programme 363Écart entre le taux de pérennité à 3 ans des entreprises nouvelles aidées par Bpifrance financement l'année de leur création et le taux de pérennité à 3 ans des entreprises créées en France | 6,0 points (génération 2014 pour création, 2020 pour les autres)2024 | 62024 | not measured | RAP 2024 (PLRG 2024), mission Plan de relance, programme 363 « Compétitivité », indicateur 2.1p. 69; cible 2025: 6,1 (copy: data/literature/law/rap-2024-plan-de-relance.txt) | None at this site's unit: Sirene gives each firm's creation and closure dates, but the list of firms Bpifrance financed is not open. |
| P363-1-1, programme 363Taux de consommation des crédits : CP | 25 %2024 | 1002024 | not measured | RAP 2024 (PLRG 2024), mission Plan de relance, programme 363 « Compétitivité », indicateur 1.1p. 68 (copy: data/literature/law/rap-2024-plan-de-relance.txt) | No open data measures it: a budget-execution ratio with no unit below the programme. |
No State indicator on the décarbonation de l'industrie (action 03 of programme 362): the PAP 2021 objectives of programme 362 cover credit use, public-building energy, MaPrimeRénov’ for the worst-rated housing, modal share and new-car CO2. Sénat, rapport général n° 138 (2020-2021), annexe 22 « Plan de relance », table drawn from the PAP 2021; RAP 2024, programme 362, récapitulation des objectifs, PDF pp. 22-24 (copy: data/literature/law/senat-plf-2021-plan-de-relance.txt). Géorisques IREP declared emissions by industrial site, which this site already reads (data/firms/co2.csv), would measure the aim the State left without an indicator. This site measured it anyway: the CO2 declared by the winners' industrial sites moved by against matched sites from 2019 to 2024 (95% interval −7.1% to 13.8%).
The census outcomes compare 2021 with 2015, so they serve only designs that start in 2015-2017, and no placebo can be run on them; land taken comes from CEREMA's land-registry series, 2011-2024. The aims and their sources are in aims.csv, the texts of law in law.csv, the State's indicators in indicators.csv, and this site's measures of them in measured.csv and, year by year, measured_series.csv.