How France works
Does it work?
For every line of public money, whether anyone has measured what it achieves, and what was found.
- in higher-education apprenticeship contracts, against secondary ones, when their hiring aid ended in early 2026, and in the employment gap between 60-64 and 55-59 since the 2023 pension reform: the two largest changes among the schemes this site evaluates. Both are descriptive; neither design measures the scheme's effect. Measured against their own aims, the others move firms' turnover and CO2, business research, pupils' results, and jobs in the small towns and industrial territories by amounts the designs cannot tell from zero. The rural zone's communes fell in population against their matches, as their unclassified neighbours did. Their private jobs fell too, by about as much as the pairs' jobs had drifted apart between the years they were matched on, before 2016. The industrial territories' industrial jobs fell, and researchers per thousand in employment were above the synthetic comparison, at the smallest p-value ten units allow.
- of 2024 public money is in broad lines where some study looks at leakage, in single measures where one does. Where it is looked for, most studies find it. For housing benefit, rents absorbed much of it.
- of 2024 public money is in broad lines that contain at least one causal study; single measures with a causal study and their own cost hold . of the official goals set for these lines have been measured, and of the money is in lines with evidence on whether effects last.
In short
What this page finds
- Causal studies reach most broad lines, one rule at a time. of public money sits in broad lines, such as old-age pensions or primary education, that contain at least one causal study. Single measures with their own cost and a causal study number , for or of the money; what the rules studied inside spending lines cost is not published, so the share of money evaluated is unknown. Of the official goals set for these lines, have been measured.
- We rarely know whether effects move or last. Where leakage is looked for, most studies find it. The forms found are listed in the table. Some study looks at permanence in broad lines holding of the money, and in single measures holding .
- Measured against their own aims, the schemes evaluated here move most outcomes by amounts the designs cannot tell from zero, and in a few cases outcomes fell against the comparison group. In the communes that entered the rural tax zone in 2017, population moved by between the 2015 and 2021 censuses and net migration by per 1,000 inhabitants against matched communes, falls their unclassified neighbours share, which points to the area rather than the zone; their private jobs moved by . In the communes of Territoires d'industrie, industrial jobs moved by over the same censuses; in the small towns of Petites villes de demain, private jobs moved by . France Relance grant winners' turnover moved by and the CO2 their facilities declare by . For the research tax credit, business research cannot be told from no effect, while researchers per thousand in employment rose above the synthetic France, ranked first of the 10 countries compared. For collèges that left priority education, the social position index of pupils' families moved by points. The data cannot tell a loss from none, and the comparison at entry fails its placebo. Teachers' turnover by collège and firms' imports, which would measure two more aims, are not published school by school or firm by firm. A result that cannot be told from zero may also mean the data are too coarse to show an effect. The two largest changes are descriptive: when higher-education apprentices lost the hiring aid in early 2026, their contracts moved by relative to secondary ones, while large firms lost it at every level; since the 2023 pension reform, the employment gap between 60-64 and 55-59 has grown by , which this site's comparison cannot attribute to the reform alone.
- Against countries that spend as much per head, France's life expectancy is above the fitted line and its learning scores below it. Life expectancy is years against predicted, learning outcomes against predicted.
- At the State's discount rate, an effect that lasts five years instead of ten keeps of its value; a statistical life is worth in 2010 euros, a tonne of CO2 avoided .
All public money
What is known of what it achieves
Public money in 2024: general government spending, tax expenditures and exemptions from social contributions, line by line. For each line, the question is whether anyone has measured its effect against what would have happened without it. of the money sits in broad lines that contain at least one causal study; was reviewed without a causal design; for , we found nothing.
- At least one causal study
- Reviewed, not causally
- Nothing found
Show the data as a table
| Line | 2024 | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old age | €392bn | At least one causal study | 32 causal studies, 2006-2026; units: couple, household, individual, individual / couple |
| Hospital services | €109.3bn | At least one causal study | 10 causal studies, 2013-2025; units: hospital, hospital stay, hospital stay / inter-hospital transfer, in-patient |
| Outpatient services | €91.8bn | At least one causal study | 22 causal studies, 2008-2026; units: area, consultation, individual, individual / visits |
| Sickness and disability | €83.9bn | At least one causal study | 7 causal studies, 2015-2026; units: individual employee, individual employee / sick-leave spell |
| General contribution reductions | €77.6bn | At least one causal study | 13 causal studies, 2001-2025; units: economy-wide labour market, firm, job and firm, sector |
| Family and children | €66.7bn | At least one causal study | 22 causal studies, 1998-2025; units: household, individual, municipality / individual |
| Secondary education | €63.8bn | At least one causal study | 14 causal studies, 1994-2025; units: family, individual, n/a, pupil |
| Transport | €60.7bn | At least one causal study | 4 causal studies, 2017-2026; units: affiliate, city and neighbourhood, line-direction-stop-time slot, municipality |
| Public debt transactions | €58.9bn | Nothing found | |
| General services | €53.8bn | Reviewed, not causally | |
| Unemployment | €48.5bn | At least one causal study | 20 causal studies, 1999-2026; units: firm, hires / fixed-term contracts, individual, labour market |
| Military defence | €47.7bn | At least one causal study | 4 causal studies, 2007-2023; units: individual |
| General economic, commercial and labour affairs | €45.3bn | At least one causal study | 33 causal studies, 2005-2025; units: commune, establishment, establishment location within municipality, firm |
| Medical products, appliances and equipment | €43.7bn | At least one causal study | 5 causal studies, 2013-2026; units: hospital, hospital x drug, patient |
| Executive and legislative organs, financial and fiscal affairs, external affairs | €42.8bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2016-2016; units: taxpayer |
| Pre-primary and primary education | €42.2bn | At least one causal study | 13 causal studies, 2004-2025; units: child, class, individual, mother |
| Survivors | €40.6bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2023-2023; units: individual |
| Social exclusion n.e.c. | €36.5bn | At least one causal study | 28 causal studies, 2002-2026; units: household, household / individual, individual |
| Police services | €28.9bn | At least one causal study | 4 causal studies, 2013-2025; units: national casualty time series by road-user type, national road network, neighbourhood / camera area, police force-month |
| Community development | €27.2bn | At least one causal study | 4 causal studies, 2020-2026; units: job applications, municipalities within zone c, renovated neighbourhoods |
| R&D Economic affairs | €21.4bn | Nothing found | |
| Housing | €21.1bn | At least one causal study | 7 causal studies, 2002-2014; units: dwelling, dwelling / local private rental market, household, individual |
| Subsidiary services to education | €20bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2017-2017; units: pupil |
| Basic research | €19.9bn | Nothing found | |
| Cultural services | €19bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2025-2025; units: individual |
| Waste management | €15.9bn | Reviewed, not causally | |
| Recreational and sporting services | €15.6bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2009-2009; units: country |
| Fuel and energy | €15.5bn | At least one causal study | 2 causal studies, 2024-2024; units: individual bank account, individual bank account / household |
| Exemptions from the contribution base | €14.9bn | Nothing found | |
| Tertiary education | €12.3bn | At least one causal study | 4 causal studies, 2013-2024; units: applicant, student |
| Other industries | €11.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Smaller tax expenditures, under EUR 200m each | €10.7bn | Nothing found | |
| Other targeted exemptions | €9.4bn | At least one causal study | 2 causal studies, 2017-2021; units: firm |
| Education not definable by level | €8.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Housing development | €8.4bn | At least one causal study | 10 causal studies, 2008-2025; units: building-land transactions, commune, eligible vs non-eligible areas, household |
| Law courts | €8.3bn | At least one causal study | 6 causal studies, 2015-2024; units: bankruptcy case / firm, convicted individual, court, criminal case / defendant |
| Public health services | €8bn | At least one causal study | 10 causal studies, 2017-2026; units: individual, individual smoker, individual, clusters stratified by deprivation, municipality cluster |
| Fire-protection services | €7.9bn | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt en faveur de la recherche | €7.8bn | At least one causal study | 7 causal studies, 2012-2021; units: firm, firm by size class |
| Broadcasting and publishing services | €7.6bn | Nothing found | |
| R&D Health | €6.7bn | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt au titre de l'emploi d'un salarié à domicile | €6.4bn | At least one causal study | 5 causal studies, 2007-2011; units: household, tax household |
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting | €6.2bn | At least one causal study | 13 causal studies, 2009-2025; units: area/commune-level survey points in lower normandy, bird observation site, cohorts of farms, farm |
| Waste water management | €5.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Prisons | €5.1bn | At least one causal study | 3 causal studies, 2009-2020; units: inmate/offender, offender |
| Exonération partielle, sous certaines conditions, de droits de mutation à titre gratuit lors de la transmission d'entreprises exploitées sous la forme individuelle ou détenues sous forme sociale | €5bn | At least one causal study | 2 causal studies, 2025-2025; units: firm, firm transmitted by gift/inheritance |
| Foreign economic aid | €4.9bn | Nothing found | |
| Abattement de 10 % sur le montant des pensions (y compris les pensions alimentaires) et des retraites | €4.8bn | Nothing found | |
| Pollution abatement | €4.3bn | Nothing found | |
| Social protection n.e.c. | €3.7bn | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des sommes versées au titre de la participation, de l'intéressement, de l'abondement, d'un partage de plus-value, des primes de partage de la valeur, d’un plan de partage de la valorisation de l’entreprise, aux plans d'épargne salariale et aux plans d'épargne retraite d'entreprise collectifs ou obligatoires | €2.9bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2019-2019; units: firm |
| Water supply | €2.8bn | Nothing found | |
| Economic affairs n.e.c. | €2.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Defence n.e.c. | €2.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 10 % pour les travaux d’amélioration, de transformation, d’aménagement et d’entretien, autres que les travaux de rénovation énergétiques soumis au taux de 5,5 % en application de l’article 278-0 bis A, portant sur les logements achevés depuis plus de deux ans | €2.2bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2007-2007; units: sector/market |
| Exonération de l’impôt sur le revenu, sous certaines conditions et limites, des rémunérations versées à raison des heures supplémentaires et complémentaires réalisées à compter du 1er janvier 2019 | €2.1bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2014-2014; units: worker |
| Taux de 10% pour la restauration commerciale (consommation sur place et vente à emporter en vue d'une consommation immédiate) | €2bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2019-2019; units: firm |
| Foreign military aid | €2bn | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt au titre des dons | €2bn | At least one causal study | 2 causal studies, 2010-2016; units: tax household |
| Déduction des dépenses de réparations et d'amélioration | €2bn | Nothing found | |
| Public order and safety n.e.c. | €1.9bn | Nothing found | |
| Street lighting | €1.8bn | Nothing found | |
| Housing and community amenities n.e.c. | €1.8bn | Nothing found | |
| R&D Environmental protection | €1.8bn | Nothing found | |
| Tarif réduit (remboursement ou application dès la facturation) pour les gazoles, les fiouls lourds et les gaz de pétrole liquéfiés utilisés pour les travaux agricoles et forestiers | €1.8bn | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt pour frais de garde des enfants âgés de moins de 6 ans | €1.7bn | Nothing found | |
| R&D Defence | €1.7bn | Nothing found | |
| Protection of biodiversity and landscape | €1.7bn | Nothing found | |
| Health n.e.c. | €1.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt au titre des dons faits par les entreprises à des œuvres ou organismes d'intérêt général | €1.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Mining, manufacturing and construction | €1.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Communication | €1.6bn | Nothing found | |
| Overseas exemptions (LODEOM) | €1.5bn | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2025-2025; units: firm in overseas departments |
| Environmental protection n.e.c. | €1.5bn | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des prestations familiales et de l'allocation aux adultes handicapés | €1.5bn | Nothing found | |
| Réductions d'impôt sur le revenu en faveur de l'investissement locatif intermédiaire (dispositifs Duflot et Pinel) | €1.5bn | At least one causal study | 2 causal studies, 2018-2019; units: municipality, municipality / local housing market |
| Réduction du champ de l'accise sur les produits énergétiques à usage carburants, dans les collectivités régies par l'article 73 de la Constitution, aux seuls essences et gazoles et faculté pour ces collectivités de minorer les tarifs | €1.5bn | Nothing found | |
| Taxation au taux de 10% des revenus issus de certains actifs de propriété industrielle | €1.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Exonération pour les véhicules de tourisme pour les véhicules hybrides électriques présentant une autonomie en mode tout électrique supérieure à 50 km | €1.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Niveau des taux en Guadeloupe, en Martinique et à La Réunion (8,5 % pour le taux normal et 2,1 % pour le taux réduit) | €1.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Tarif réduit (remboursement) pour les gazoles utilisés comme carburant par les véhicules routiers de transport de marchandises d'au moins 7,5 tonnes | €1.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Post-secondary non-tertiary education | €1.2bn | Nothing found | |
| Exonération pour les véhicules dont la source d’énergie est exclusivement l'électricité, l'hydrogène ou une combinaison des deux | €1.1bn | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des intérêts des livrets A | €950m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 5,5% pour les travaux d'amélioration de la qualité énergétique des locaux à usage d'habitation achevés depuis plus de deux ans ainsi que sur les travaux induits qui leur sont indissociablement liés | €935m | Nothing found | |
| General public services n.e.c. | €867m | Nothing found | |
| Demi-part supplémentaire, ou quart de part supplémentaire en cas de résidence alternée des enfants à charge, accordée aux parents isolés | €849m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt sur le revenu à raison des investissements productifs réalisés dans les départements et collectivités d'outre-mer | €775m | Nothing found | |
| Religious and other community services | €744m | Nothing found | |
| Tarif réduit des gazoles non routiers autres que celui utilisé pour les usages agricoles | €713m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction des émissions, ou de la puissance administrative, prises en compte dans le barème du malus à hauteur de 80 grammes par kilomètre, ou de 4 CV, pour les véhicules comportant au moins 8 places assises dont disposent les personnes morales | €700m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 10 % pour les prestations d’hébergement fournies dans le cadre du secteur hôtelier ou de secteurs ayant une fonction similaire et pour les locations de logements meublés à usage résidentiel assorties de prestations annexes | €695m | Nothing found | |
| Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables vivant seuls ayant eu à titre exclusif ou principal, en vivant seuls, la charge d'enfants pendant au moins cinq ans | €674m | Nothing found | |
| Tarif réduit pour les gaz naturels consommés comme combustible dans les installations grandes consommatrices d’énergie et soumises au régime des quotas d’émission de gaz à effet de serre du dispositif ETS pour les installations fixes (niveau d'intensité énergétique au moins égal à 3 % en valeur de production ou 0,5 % en valeur ajoutée) | €673m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des revenus provenant de l'épargne salariale (participation, plan d'épargne salariale et compartiment épargne salariale des plans d'épargne retraite) | €652m | Nothing found | |
| Crédits d'impôt "Prêt à taux zéro" et "Prêt à taux zéro renforcé PTZ+" | €652m | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2008-2008; units: household |
| Exonérations des produits retirés par les sociétés d'investissements immobiliers cotées, ainsi que par leurs filiales ou des filiales de sociétés de placement à prépondérance immobilière à capital variable ou des filiales conjointes de ces dernières sociétés, et provenant de la location d'immeubles, de la sous-location des immeubles pris en crédit bail ou dont la jouissance a été conférée à titre temporaire par l'Etat, une collectivité territoriale ou leurs établissements publics, de certains droits réels immobiliers et de certaines plus-values de cession | €648m | Nothing found | |
| Détermination du résultat imposable des entreprises de transport maritime en fonction du tonnage de leurs navires | €625m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des sociétés de placement à prépondérance immobilière à capital variable (SPPICAV) | €600m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des indemnités journalières de sécurité sociale servies au titre des maladies "longues et coûteuses" | €597m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération ou imposition réduite des produits attachés aux bons ou contrats de capitalisation et d'assurance-vie | €582m | Nothing found | |
| Education n.e.c. | €575m | Reviewed, not causally | |
| Taux de 10 % dans le secteur du logement locatif social pour les opérations qui ne sont pas éligibles au taux réduit de 5,5 % | €560m | Nothing found | |
| Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables invalides | €523m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération totale pour les prestations et rentes viagères servies aux victimes d'accidents du travail et de maladies professionnelles et à hauteur de 50 % pour les indemnités temporaires | €521m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération de la participation des employeurs au financement des titres-restaurant | €519m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 5,5 % dans le secteur de l’accession sociale à la propriété et dans le secteur du logement locatif social pour les logements financés par un prêt locatif aidé d’intégration (PLAI), pour les logements financés par un prêt locatif à usage social (PLUS) lorsqu’ils relèvent de la politique de renouvellement urbain, ainsi que pour certains travaux portant sur ces logements ou participant au renouvellement urbain | €505m | Nothing found | |
| Tarif particulier pour le superéthanol E85, carburant essence comprenant au moins 65 % d'éthanol | €501m | Nothing found | |
| Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables (et leurs conjoints survivants) de plus de 74 ans titulaires de la carte du combattant et pour les conjoints survivants de plus de 74 ans de personnes titulaires de la carte du combattant au moment de leur décès | €493m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des dividendes capitalisés sur un plan d'épargne en actions | €428m | Nothing found | |
| Tarif réduit pour l’électricité consommée par les entreprises électro-intensives pour les besoins des activités industrielles | €428m | Nothing found | |
| Régime spécial d'imposition des assistants maternels et des assistants familiaux régis par les articles L. 421-1 et suivants et L. 423-1 et suivants du code de l'action sociale et des familles | €427m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction, dans la limite d’un certain montant, pour les contribuables des départements d’outre-mer de la cotisation résultant du barème (30 % en Guadeloupe, Martinique et Réunion ; 40 % en Guyane et à Mayotte) | €426m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des intérêts et primes versés dans le cadre de l'épargne logement | €426m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération du salaire des apprentis et des gratifications versées aux stagiaires versées à compter du 12 juillet 2014 | €424m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération d’impôt sur les bénéfices pour les entreprises créées ou reprises dans les ZRR | €411m | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2015-2015; units: rural municipality / zone |
| Exonération des organismes d'HLM et des offices publics d'aménagement et de construction (OPAC) | €400m | Nothing found | |
| Abattement en faveur des personnes âgées ou invalides de condition modeste | €390m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération temporaire des suppléments de rémunération versés aux salariés et mandataires sociaux au titre de l'exercice d'une activité professionnelle en France (primes d'impatriation), de la fraction de leur rémunération correspondant à l'activité exercée à l'étranger et de la rémunération des salariés et dirigeants de la Chambre de commerce internationale | €388m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des intérêts des livrets de développement durable | €384m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération totale ou partielle des sommes versées aux salariés détachés à l'étranger | €369m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt en faveur de l'innovation | €330m | At least one causal study | 1 causal study, 2021-2021; units: firm |
| Imposition au taux forfaitaire des prestations de retraite versées sous forme de capital : 12,8 % pour la part correspondant aux produits provenant d'un plan d'épargne retraite ; 7,5 % pour les autres prestations de retraite servies sous forme de capital | €328m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 5,5 % applicable aux droits d’entrée dans les théâtres, les cirques, les concerts, les spectacles de variété, les salles de cinéma, les parcs zoologiques et les compétitions de jeux vidéos | €315m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération d'impôt sur le revenu (sur option) des salaires perçus par les jeunes au titre d'une activité exercée pendant leurs études secondaires ou supérieures ou leurs congés scolaires ou universitaires | €312m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération de la cotisation minimum de CFE des redevables réalisant un très faible chiffre d'affaires | €306m | Nothing found | |
| Déduction de précaution | €301m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt à raison des investissements productifs réalisés dans les départements d'outre-mer | €295m | Nothing found | |
| Déduction exceptionnelle de 40% du prix de revient de certains biens limitativement énumérés, pratiquée sur la durée normale d'utilisation du bien | €289m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération sous plafond des indemnités reçues par les salariés en cas de rupture conventionnelle du contrat de travail (ou dispositifs assimilés) | €284m | Nothing found | |
| Pertes de récoltes ou de bétail | €284m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt au titre des frais de dépendance et d'hébergement pour les personnes dépendantes accueillies en établissement spécialisé | €270m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d’impôt à raison des investissements effectués dans le secteur du logement social dans les départements d’outre-mer | €258m | Nothing found | |
| Dépenses pour faciliter l'accessibilité pour personnes handicapées | €248m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération des services rendus aux personnes physiques par les associations agréées en application de l'article L. 7232-1 du code du travail | €245m | Nothing found | |
| Recreation, culture and religion n.e.c. | €232m | Nothing found | |
| Civil defence | €229m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 10 % pour les ventes et livraisons à soi-même, à des investisseurs dotés de la personnalité morale, de logements locatifs intermédiaires situés dans des zones caractérisées par un déséquilibre important entre l’offre et la demande de logement ou en cours de revitalisation et de réindustrialisation, lorsqu’ils répondent à des critères de mixité avec des logements locatifs sociaux, ainsi que pour les livraisons de logements locatifs intermédiaires à l’association foncière logement, ou aux sociétés qu’elle contrôle, lorsqu’ils sont situés dans des quartiers ciblés de la politique de la ville ou à leur proximité | €225m | Nothing found | |
| Taux de 10 % applicable aux droits d’admission aux expositions, sites et installations à caractère culturel, ludique, éducatif et professionnel ainsi qu’aux loteries foraines | €225m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt pour dépenses de production d'œuvres audiovisuelles | €224m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt pour frais de scolarité dans l'enseignement secondaire | €221m | Nothing found | |
| Taux particuliers applicables à divers produits et services consommés ou utilisés en Corse | €219m | Nothing found | |
| Réduction d'impôt pour frais de scolarité dans l'enseignement supérieur | €217m | Nothing found | |
| Exonération partielle de la prise en charge par l'employeur, une collectivité territoriale ou l’opérateur France Travail, des frais de transport entre le domicile et le lieu de travail | €217m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt pour dépenses de production exécutive d'œuvres cinématographiques et audiovisuelles étrangères | €212m | Nothing found | |
| Crédit d'impôt famille | €209m | Nothing found | |
| Smaller tax expenditures with a causal study | €158m | At least one causal study | |
| R&D General public services | €6.1m | Nothing found | |
| Transfers of a general character between different levels of government | €0.1m | At least one causal study | 11 causal studies, 2018-2026; units: commune, municipality, urban municipality |
| R&D Public order and safety | €0m | Nothing found | |
| R&D Housing and community amenities | €0m | Nothing found | |
| R&D Recreation, culture and religion | €0m | Nothing found | |
| R&D Education | €0m | Nothing found | |
| R&D Social protection | €0m | Nothing found |
A line counts as studied as soon as one study touches it, and most studies cover one rule or one reform: defence counts because of four studies of the end of conscription, old-age pensions because of studies of the retirement-age rules, none of which measures what the pensions do for retirees' living standards, the first goal the law sets them. Counting only single measures with their own cost, tax expenditures and exemption schemes, those with a causal study number and hold of the money; the rules studied inside spending lines have no separate cost, and that part is left unknown.
The largest lines are studied, but through one rule or one reform at a time. Four large lines have no causal study: interest on the debt (€58.9bn), general services of the administration (€53.8bn), research and development for the economy (€21.4bn) and basic research (€19.9bn). Some lines, such as debt interest, cannot be evaluated this way; others, such as research, could be in principle.
The register lists causal studies, found by searching Crossref, OpenAlex, HAL and RePEc line by line; for of them the quoted finding was checked word for word against the retrieved source. They are in studies.csv, the official goals of each line in objectives.csv, and the searches that found nothing in the gap notes beside them. Spending reviews are in evaluations.csv. A line with nothing found may still have a study the searches missed: some research departments' sites blocked automated access.
All public money
Impact, leakage, permanence
For every line of public money, the three questions the carbon method asks of a forest project. Impact: did the money change the outcome, against what would have happened anyway? Leakage: did the effect move elsewhere or end up with someone else, through displaced activity, crowded-out private money, or higher prices and rents? Permanence: does it last, and does it survive when the money stops? Counting a broad line in full whenever one study informs it, even about one of its measures, some study informs impact for lines holding of the money, leakage for , permanence for . Counting only single measures with their own cost, the shares fall to , and . Of the official goals set for these lines, have been measured.
- positive impact, no leakage, lasts
- neutral: no significant effect
- negative impact, leakage found, fades
- mixed
Spending, by function
Old age€392bnnot measured3 / 9
- Montserrat Botey (2026)Pension Reform and Indebtedness in Retirement: Consumption Smoothing or Credit Expansion? Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « ces deux réformes ont accru la probabilité de détenir une dette par rapport aux cohortes non affectées »
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2021)Impact of later retirement on mortality: Evidence from FranceImpact: neutral. « has no significant impact on the probability to die »
- Hélène Blake and Clémentine Garrouste (2019)Collateral Effects of a Pension Reform in FranceImpact: negative. « a negative effect of the 1993 reform on perceived and physical health »
- Elsa Perdrix (2022)Does later retirement change your healthcare consumption? Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « decreases significantly the probability to have at least one doctor visit per year by 0.815 percentage point »
- Christophe Daniel et al. (2018)Durée d'assurance et équivalent patrimonial des droits à retraite : l'impact de la réforme de 1993Impact: positive. « reporter son départ en retraite réduit l'EPDR moyen d'environ 20% »
- Antoine Bozio (2006)Réformes des retraites : estimations sur données françaisesImpact: mixed. « a one-quarter increase in the contribution period led to an average increase of one and a half months in the length of careers »
- Antoine Bozio (2011)La réforme des retraites de 1993 : l'impact de l'augmentation de la durée d'assuranceImpact: positive. « un report de neuf mois pour toute année supplémentaire d'assurance requise »
- Julie Tréguier (2021)Départ à la retraite : femmes et hommes prennent-ils les mêmes décisions ?Impact: positive. « Les hommes sont plus sensibles aux incitations financières et décalent davantage leur âge de départ »
- Denis Fougère and Pierre Gouëdard (2021)The effects of financial incentives and disincentives on teachers' retirement decisions: Evidence from the 2003 French pension reformImpact: positive. « the reform has progressively increased the average retirement age up to 61 »
- Manuella Baraton et al. (2011)Une évaluation de l'effet de la réforme de 2003 sur les départs en retraite. Le cas des enseignants du second degré publicImpact: positive. « la réforme a bien eu un impact sur la probabilité de partir après 60 ans »
- Sarah Le Duigou et al. (2020)Financial incentives to postpone retirement: Estimating the impacts of the 2003 French pension reform on the employment and wages of older workers by using a lifetime job search modelImpact: mixed. « attenuate the impacts of financial incentives that cause wage increases and few new jobs »
- Samia Benallah (2011)Comportements de départ en retraite et réforme de 2003 : les effets de la surcoteImpact: positive. « un report de deux mois de l'âge de liquidation des droits à la retraite »
- Kadija Charni (2019)Do the French pension reforms increase re-employment of older unemployed workers?Impact: mixed. « the 2003 pension reform reduces significantly the exit to employment »
- Patrick Aubert et al. (2025)Impact de la réforme des retraites de 2010 sur l'équilibre financier de l'assurance chômageImpact: positive. « la réforme a accru l'emploi entre 60 et 62 ans »Leakage: leakage found. « une hausse du chômage indemnisé entre 60 et 62 ans »
- Denis Fougère et al. (2021)Slow Down Before You Stop: The Effect of the 2010 French Pension Reform on Older Teachers' Sick LeavesImpact: negative. « teachers affected by the reform have an increased probability to take short sick leaves before retirement »Leakage: leakage found. « teachers affected by the reform have an increased probability to take short sick leaves before retirement »
- Eve Caroli et al. (2023)The Health-Consumption Effects of Increasing Retirement Age Late in the GameImpact: negative. « the probability of having at least one sickness absence increases for all treated groups »Leakage: leakage found. « it increases health expenditures »
- Yves Dubois and Malik Koubi (2017)La réforme des retraites de 2010 : quel impact sur l'activité des seniors ?Impact: positive. « serait entre 19 et 22 points plus élevé que celui des salariés non impactés »Leakage: leakage found. « mais également par un accroissement du chômage »
- Mohamed Ali Ben Halima et al. (2022)L'effet de la réforme des retraites de 2010 sur l'absence maladieImpact: negative. « une augmentation de la probabilité d'avoir au moins un arrêt maladie (+1,7 point de pourcentage) »Leakage: leakage found. « une augmentation de la probabilité d'avoir au moins un arrêt maladie (+1,7 point de pourcentage) »
- Simon Rabaté and Julie Rochut (2019)Employment and substitution effects of raising the statutory retirement age in FranceImpact: positive. « despite a sizable effect on the employment rate »Leakage: leakage found. « around one fifth in the decrease in public spending is offset by increasing expenses in other public insurance schemes »
- Jean-Olivier Hairault et al. (2010)Distance to Retirement and The Job Search of Older Workers: The Case For Delaying Retirement AgeImpact: positive. « the likelihood of employment is significantly affected by the distance from retirement »
- Jean-Olivier Hairault et al. (2009)Le faible taux d'emploi des seniors : distance à l'entrée dans la vie active ou distance à la retraite ?Impact: positive. « the negative effect of proximity to retirement on older workers' employment is confirmed »
- Elena Stancanelli and Arthur van Soest (2012)Retirement and Home Production: A Regression Discontinuity ApproachImpact: positive. « own retirement significantly increases own hours of home production »
- Nicolas Moreau and Elena Stancanelli (2015)Household Consumption at Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Study on French DataImpact: mixed. « We find a significant and sizable drop in food and clothes expenditure upon retirement of the male partner. However, the drop in food expenditure is not robust »
- Elena Stancanelli (2012)Spouses' Retirement and Hours of Work Outcomes: Evidence from Twofold Regression DiscontinuityImpact: positive. « hours of work fall significantly upon own and partner's retirement »
- Elena Stancanelli and Arthur van Soest (2012)Joint Leisure Before and After Retirement: a double Regression Discontinuity ApproachImpact: positive. « hours of leisure spent together by the couple increase on average by about an hour and a half per day »
- Elena Stancanelli (2017)Couples' Retirement under Individual Pension Design: a Regression Discontinuity Study for FranceImpact: positive. « We find a significant drop in each spouse's probability of retirement. »
- Nicolas Moreau and Elena Stancanelli (2022)L'effet du passage à la retraite sur l'emploi du temps des retraitésImpact: positive. « La retraite se traduit par plus de temps consacré aux tâches ménagères, au sommeil, aux loisirs et aux repas »
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2014)Retirement, Early Retirement and Disability: Explaining Labor Force Participation after 55 in FranceImpact: positive. « a decrease in the generosity of the pension and DI schemes induces people to stay longer in the labor market »
- Simon Rabaté (2019)Can I stay or should I go? Mandatory retirement and the labor-force participation of older workersImpact: positive. « exit rates from employment are estimated to be 6% higher when mandatory retirement is possible »
- Sarah Le Duigou and Pierre-Jean Messe (2024)The influence of unemployment insurance rules on employment effects of pension reformsImpact: positive. « combining an increase in the retirement age with a reduction in the generosity of the unemployment insurance scheme is an efficient policy for raising older workers' employment rates »
- Pierre-Jean Messe and François-Charles Wolff (2019)Healthier when retiring earlier? Evidence from FranceImpact: neutral. « we fail to find any significant causal effect of early retirement on poor health »
- Pierre-Jean Messe and François-Charles Wolff (2019)The short-term effects of retirement on health within couples: Evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « transition into retirement has a short-term beneficial effect on respondents' self-assessed health. Conversely, we fail to find any significant effect of respondents' retirement on their spouses' health »
- This site: Retirement age (2023 reform)Retirement age (2023 reform)Impact: not informed. « Descriptive: the employment gap between 60-64 and 55-59 grew by 4.5 points in 2024 and 5.5 points in 2025 against 2019-2022; no counterfactual design separates the reform from other trends. »
- This site: Retirement age (2010 reform)Retirement age (2010 reform)Impact: neutral. « France's employment rate at 60-64 was 1.3 points above a synthetic France of European countries that were also raising pension ages, in 2011-2019; a fake start in 2005 finds -1.3. »
Hospital services€109.3bnnot measured2 / 3
- Philippe Choné et al. (2013)Introducing Activity-Based Payment in the Hospital Industry: Evidence from French DataImpact: positive. « we find empirical evidence supporting these predictions »
- Laurent Gobillon and Carine Milcent (2017)Competition and Hospital Quality: Evidence from a French Natural ExperimentImpact: positive. « enjoyed larger declines in mortality in places where there is greater competition »
- Benoît Lalloué et al. (2017)Evaluation of the effects of the French pay-for-performance program-IFAQ pilot studyImpact: neutral. « the difference-in-differences effect was positive but not significant »
- Carine Milcent (2021)From downcoding to upcoding: DRG based payment in hospitalsImpact: negative. « The implementation of a finer classification led to an upcoding-learning effect. »Leakage: leakage found. « The end result has been a budget transfer from public non-research hospitals to for-profit hospitals. »
- Jan Chrusciel et al. (2023)Effect of the Implementation of the French Hospital Regionalization Policy on Patient MobilityImpact: neutral. « the policy did not achieve major changes in patterns of mobility between hospitals »
- Anne Penneau (2023)Do mobile hospital teams in residential aged care facilities increase health care efficiency: an evaluation of French residential care policyImpact: positive. « The MHT had a significant impact on health care quality in treated RACFs »
- Payen A and et al. (2023)The impact of including a medication review in an integrated care pathway: A pilot studyImpact: mixed. « The pathway did not change potentially inappropriate medications; the same abstract reports fewer 30-day readmissions. »
- Brigitte Dormont and Alexis Dottin (2024)Does the opening of an emergency department influence hospital admissions? Evidence from French private hospitalsImpact: positive. « resulting in admissions of inpatients with health problems that are more severe »
- Roubille F and et al. (PRADOC investigators) (2024)PRADOC: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Efficiency of PRADO-IC, a Nationwide Pragmatic Transition Care Management Plan for Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure in FranceImpact: neutral. « The PRADO-IC has not significantly improved clinical outcomes »
- Carine Milcent (2025)Competition in French hospital: Does it impact the patient management in healthcare?Impact: mixed. « with a positive effect on high-technical procedures in the private sector and a negative effect on length of stay in public hospitals »
Outpatient services€91.8bnnot measured5 / 6
- Michel Grignon et al. (2008)Does free complementary health insurance help the poor to access health care? Evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « CMU-C had no overall effect on utilisation, with effects concentrated among enrollees previously without complementary cover »
- Julien Mousquès et al. (2010)Effect of a French experiment of team work between general practitioners and nurses on efficacy and cost of type 2 diabetes patients careImpact: positive. « Asalée patients were more often correctly followed up and under glycaemic control than controls at no extra cost »
- Sophie Guthmuller et al. (2014)Improving Takeup of Health Insurance Program: A Social Experiment in FranceImpact: mixed. « a voucher increase has a small but significant effect on takeup and the invitation to an information meeting discourages it »
- Olivier Saint-Lary and Jonathan Sicsic (2015)Impact of a pay for performance programme on French GPs' consultation lengthImpact: neutral. « the CAPI was no longer a significant predictor of the consultation length »
- Panayotis Constantinou et al. (2016)Effect of pay-for-performance on cervical cancer screening participation in FranceImpact: positive. « P4P had a modest positive effect on recommended screening participation. »Permanence: fades. « apparently transiently »
- Audrey Michel-Lepage and Bruno Ventelou (2016)The true impact of the French pay-for-performance program on physicians' benzodiazepines prescription behaviorImpact: positive. « The P4P contract has a positive but modest impact on the achievement of GPs regarding benzodiazepines indicator. »
- Jonathan Sicsic and Carine Franc (2017)Impact assessment of a pay-for-performance program on breast cancer screening in France using micro dataImpact: neutral. « The French P4P program had a nonsignificant impact on breast cancer screening uptake. »
- Sophie Guthmuller and Jérôme Wittwer (2017)The Impact of the Eligibility Threshold of a French Means-Tested Health Insurance Programme on Doctor Visits: A Regression Discontinuity AnalysisImpact: mixed. « with more specialist visits among adults under 30 »
- Magali Dumontet et al. (2017)Gatekeeping and the utilization of physician services in France: Evidence on the Médecin traitant reformImpact: positive. « fell after the policy was in place »
- L. Arnaud Lafargue (2017)Intérêt au déploiement du PAERPA dans l'Oise ? Comparaison des pratiques des médecins généralistes avec un territoire piloteImpact: positive. « les pratiques des médecins PAERPA étaient significativement meilleures sur la prévention des chutes »
- B. Carré et al. (2019)Does the take up of public insurance programs improves health care consumption of poor individuals?Impact: positive. « may play an important role in access to care for the poor population »
- Guillaume Chevillard et al. (2019)Has the diffusion of primary care teams in France improved attraction and retention of general practitioners in rural areas?Impact: positive. « suggest that they could attract and retain GPs there »
- Matthieu Cassou et al. (2020)General practitioners' income and activity: the impact of multi-professional group practice in FranceImpact: positive. « an increase in income 2.5% higher than that of other GPs »
- Fanny Duchaine et al. (2020)L'impact des zonages déficitaires sur l'évolution des disparités territoriales d'infirmiers libéraux en France entre 2006 et 2016Impact: positive. « un effet positif, bien qu'à nuancer »
- Guillaume Chevillard and Julien Mousquès (2021)Medically underserved areas: are primary care teams efficient at attracting and retaining general practitioners?Impact: positive. « PCT settlements are efficient to attract young GPs »
- Christophe Loussouarn et al. (2021)Can General Practitioners Be More Productive? The Impact of Teamwork and Cooperation with Nurses on GP ActivitiesImpact: positive. « un effet positif du dispositif mais relativement modeste sur le nombre de jours travaillés par les médecins (+1,2 %) »
- Matthieu Cassou et al. (2023)General Practitioners activity patterns: the medium-term impacts of Primary Care Teams in FranceImpact: positive. « GPs in MPCGs increased their patient list more rapidly than control GPs »
- Julie Gilles de la Londe et al. (2023)How does the quality of care for type 2 diabetic patients benefit from GPs-nurses' teamwork? A staggered difference-in-differences design based on a French pilot programImpact: positive. « a positive and significant positive impact »
- Aimée Kingsada (2024)Can financial incentives improve access to care? Evidence from a French experiment on specialist physiciansImpact: positive. « Both the CAS and OPTAM successfully enhance access to care. »
- Quitterie Roquebert et al. (2025)Strengthening primary health care: The new contribution of midwives to gynecological care in FranceImpact: positive. « Our results show an increase in midwives' use following the reform »
- Estelle Augé and Nicolas Sirven (2026)Improving Healthcare Utilization in Retired Self-Employed Workers: Evidence From an Experiment in FranceImpact: positive. « Proactive information outreach alone increased healthcare utilization by 0.6% »
- S. Tubert-Jeannin et al. (2026)The French 100% Santé Reform: Impacts on Dental Care UtilizationImpact: positive. « Full denture utilization was 58.85% higher »
Sickness and disability€83.9bnnot measured1 / 18
- Mohamed Ali Ben Halima and Malik Koubi (2022)The effects of expanding the generosity of statutory sick leave insurance: The case of a French reformImpact: positive. « the number of sick days' increases significantly (+ 0.5 days) »
- Mohamed Ali Ben Halima et al. (2015)Quel est l'impact du système d'indemnisation maladie sur la durée des arrêts de travail pour maladie ?Impact: positive. « La simple présence d'une convention collective a un effet positif sur la probabilité d'avoir un arrêt maladie dans l'année »
- Catherine Pollak (2017)The impact of a sick pay waiting period on sick leave patternsImpact: mixed. « employees who are compensated during the 3-day waiting period are not more likely to have an absence. On the contrary, their sickness leaves are significantly shorter by 3 days on average »
- Mélina Hillion and Édouard Maugendre (2024)L'effet du « jour de carence » sur les absences pour maladie des personnels du secteur public de l'éducation nationaleImpact: positive. « le jour de carence s'accompagne en moyenne d'une baisse de 23 % du nombre d'épisodes de CMO »
- Mélina Hillion and Édouard Maugendre (2023)L'effet du « jour de carence » sur les absences pour maladie ordinaire, la santé perçue et le recours aux soins à court-termeImpact: neutral. « le jour de carence n'a pas eu d'effet notable sur la perception de l'état de santé général »Leakage: no leakage found. « les visites médicales (généralistes et spécialistes), les délivrances de médicaments et les hospitalisations »
- Mohamed Ali Ben Halima et al. (2026)Quels effets du jour de carence sur les absences maladie des agents publics territoriaux en 2018-2019 ?Impact: positive. « une baisse significative des congés pour maladie ordinaire dans la fonction publique territoriale suite à la mesure »
- Alexandre Cazenave-Lacroutz and Alexandre Godzinski (2017)Effects of the one-day waiting period for sick leave on health-related absences in the French central civil serviceImpact: mixed. « the total prevalence of health-related absences is not affected by the policy. However, its duration distribution is. »Leakage: leakage found. « The prevalence of short-term absences decreases, while the prevalence of long-term absences increases. »
Family and children€66.7bn2 / 5
- Philippe Chone et al. (2004)Offre de travail feminine et garde des jeunes enfantsImpact: positive. « Le temps partiel féminin est fortement sensible aux incitations financières de l'APE »
- Thomas Piketty (2005)L'impact de l'allocation parentale d'education sur l'activite feminine et la fecondite en France, 1982-2002Impact: positive. « entre 100 000 et 150 000 mères de 2 enfants »Leakage: leakage found. « entre 100 000 et 150 000 mères de 2 enfants (sur environ 300 000 allocataires de l'APE de rang 2 au 31 décembre 1997, dont 220 000 à plein taux) »
- Julie Moschion (2010)Reconciling Work and Family Life: The Effect of the French Paid Parental LeaveImpact: positive. « having more than two children no longer has a negative effect on the participation probability of mothers »
- Laurent Lequien (2012)The Impact of Parental Leave Duration on Later WagesImpact: positive. « this reform did induce many mothers to withdraw from the labor market in the 3 years following the birth »Permanence: lasts. « interruption duration would have a negative causal impact on wages after the return to work »
- Laudine Carbuccia et al. (2025)A randomised controlled trial on the effect of administrative burden and information costs on social inequalities in early childcare access in FranceImpact: mixed. « the information-only treatment had minimal impact, while adding personalised support to alleviate administrative burdens significantly bridged the SES and migration gaps in early childcare applications »
- Nelly Elmallakh (2023)Fertility and Labor Supply Responses to Child Allowances: The Introduction of Means-Tested Benefits in FranceImpact: positive. « restricting family allowance eligibility criteria decreases fertility among the richest households »
- Guillaume Allegre et al. (2015)Child care and labour market participation in France: do monetary incentives matter?Impact: positive. « We show that monetary incentives do play a role. »
- Ariane Pailhe et al. (2024)Can Daddies Learn to Care for Babies? The Effect of A Short Paternity Leave on the Division of Childcare and HouseworkImpact: mixed. « Le fait de prendre un congé de paternité conduit à un partage plus équitable de plusieurs tâches parentales. Il n'a qu'un effet marginal sur le partage des activités ménagères. »
- Lawrence M. Berger et al. (2021)The Impact of Center-Based Childcare Attendance on Early Child Development: Evidence From the French Elfe CohortImpact: mixed. « crèche attendance has a positive impact on language skills, no impact on motor skills, and a negative impact on behavior »
- Pierre Pora (2020)Keep Working and Spend Less? Collective Childcare and Parental Earnings in FranceImpact: neutral. « These plans did not lead to any substantial change in parents' labor outcomes or in paid parental leave take-up. »Leakage: leakage found. « these collective childcare expansions crowded out more costly formal childcare solutions »
- Jerome Poulain et al. (2024)Evaluation de l'impact du dispositif Fais-moi une place sur les trajectoires professionnellesImpact: mixed. « Aucun effet du programme n'est détecté sur l'accès à la formation »
- Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanie (2014)Identifying the Response of Fertility to Financial IncentivesImpact: positive. « financial incentives have had a significant effect on fertility decisions in France »
- Thomas Piketty (1998)L'impact des incitations financieres au travail sur les comportements individuels : une estimation pour le cas francaisImpact: mixed. « the data used do not enable us to show any significant effect of financial incentives to work on men's transition from non-employment to employment »
- Pauline Givord and Claire Marbot (2015)Does the cost of child care affect female labor market participation? An evaluation of a French reform of childcare subsidiesImpact: positive. « the new policy results in a significant increase in the use of paid childcare services »
- Olivier Joseph et al. (2013)The economic impact of taking short parental leave: Evaluation of a French reformImpact: mixed. « full-time short paid parental leave had almost no effect on labour market participation and wages of first mothers at the global level »Permanence: lasts. « The wages remain lower two years after child birth »
- Zsuzsanna Makay (2023)Paid Parental Leave Reforms and Mothers' Employment in Austria, France and HungaryImpact: mixed. « We found however, no significant effect of the 1986 reform for third children and the 2004 reform »
- Helene Perivier and Gregory Verdugo (2023)Where Are the Fathers? Effects of Earmarking Parental Leave for Fathers in FranceImpact: mixed. « The reform increased mothers' labor earnings, but it had no significant impact on fathers' earnings. »
- Mathilde Guergoat-Lariviere and Mathieu Narcy (2024)La reforme du conge parental de 2015 : un impact heterogene sur les meres et les peres selon les groupes sociaux et le contexte localImpact: mixed. « cette réforme n'a pas réellement encouragé les pères à prolonger le congé parental de leur conjointe à temps plein, certains l'ont fait à temps partiel »
- Mathilde Guergoat-Lariviere et al. (2023)L'impact de la PreParE sur l'activite, les revenus et les modes de gardeImpact: positive. « la réduction d'un an de la durée d'indemnisation du congé parental a augmenté la probabilité des mères d'être en emploi »Leakage: leakage found. « a contribué à augmenter le taux de recours à certains modes de garde formels »Permanence: lasts. « mais également sur les trois années suivantes (+3,4 pp.) »
- Mathieu Narcy and Florent Sari (2021)Quel est l'effet d'une reduction de la duree d'indemnisation du conge parental sur l'activite des meres ? Une evaluation de la reforme de 2015Impact: positive. « Cette réforme a eu pour conséquence de réduire la probabilité de recourir au congé parental à temps plein d'environ 10 points de pourcentage »
- Helene Perivier and Gregory Verdugo (2021)Cinq ans apres la reforme du conge parental (PreParE), les objectifs sont-ils atteints ?Impact: mixed. « la réforme n'a pas eu d'effet sur la probabilité pour le couple d'avoir un autre enfant ou de se séparer »
- Luc Behaghel and Maria Florencia Pinto (2024)Extended maternity leave and children's long-term developmentImpact: neutral. « a three‐year paid leave in France had zero average effects on children's long‐term schooling achievement »
Secondary education€63.8bnnot measured3 / 3
- Thomas Piketty and Mathieu Valdenaire (2006)L'impact de la taille des classes sur la réussite scolaire dans les écoles, collèges et lycées français - Estimations à partir du panel primaire 1997 et du panel secondaire 1995Impact: positive. « Une réduction d'un élève par classe de la taille de CE1 conduit à une augmentation de 0,7 point du score »
- Maxime Fajeau et al. (2025)Efficacité économique de la réduction de la taille des classesImpact: positive. « une forte rentabilité de la politique dans l'enseignement primaire »
- Julien Silhol and Lionel Wilner (2022 (WP); 2026 (journal))Teachers' Desired Mobility to Disadvantaged Schools: Do Financial Incentives Matter?Impact: positive. « most responsive teachers have less experience and work already in those areas »
- Liliane Bonnal et al. (2002)School-to-work transition: apprenticeship versus vocational school in FranceImpact: positive. « apprentices have a distinct advantage over those who attended vocational school »
- Élodie Alet and Liliane Bonnal (2011)Vocational schooling and educational success: comparing apprenticeship to full-time vocational high-schoolImpact: mixed. « is not associated with any significant effect on the probability to drop-out, apprenticeship training leads to a higher probability of success at the exam »
- Robert J. Gary-Bobo and Mohamed-Badrane Mahjoub (2013)Estimation of Class-Size Effects, Using "Maimonides' Rule" and Other Instruments: the Case of French Junior High SchoolsImpact: mixed. « These effects vanish in grades 8 and 9. »
- Julien Grenet (2013)Is Extending Compulsory Schooling Alone Enough to Raise Earnings? Evidence from French and British Compulsory Schooling LawsImpact: neutral. « the impact of the change to French law was close to zero »
- Dominique Goux et al. (2017)Adjusting Your Dreams? High School Plans and Dropout BehaviourImpact: positive. « the intervention reduces grade repetition and dropout by 25% to 40% »
- Francesco Avvisati et al. (2014)Getting Parents Involved: A Field Experiment in Deprived SchoolsImpact: mixed. « However, test scores did not improve under the intervention. »
- Denis Meuret (1994)L'efficacité de la politique des zones d'éducation prioritaire dans les collègesImpact: negative. « les élèves progressent en ZEP un peu moins qu'ils ne progresseraient ailleurs »
- Roland Bénabou et al. (2009)The French zones d'éducation prioritaire: Much ado about nothing?Impact: neutral. « there is no impact on student success of the ZEP program »
- Laurent Davezies and Manon Garrouste (2020)More Harm than Good? Sorting Effects in a Compensatory Education ProgramImpact: negative. « the program decreases the individual probability of attending a treated school »Leakage: leakage found. « symmetrically increases the probability of attending a private school »
- Corinne Prost (2013)Teacher Mobility: Can Financial Incentives Help Disadvantaged Schools to Retain Their Teachers?Impact: neutral. « the incentives driven by bonuses are not sufficient to retain teachers in ZEP schools »
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2017)Ready for Boarding? The Effects of a Boarding School for Disadvantaged StudentsImpact: mixed. « this effect mostly comes from strong students »
- This site: Priority education (REP/REP+)Priority education (REP/REP+)Impact: not informed. « The placebo fails: entering collèges were already falling behind before 2015, so the entry design cannot measure the label. »Permanence: not informed. « Collèges that left priority education in 2015 moved by -1.5 points of brevet pass rate against those that stayed (95% confidence interval -5.5 to +2.6): the data cannot tell a loss from none. The social position index of their pupils moved by +1.4 points (95% interval -1.0 to +3.7). »
Transport€60.7bnnot measured0 / 6
- Stéphanie Truchet-Aznar et al. (2024)Évaluation de l'impact de la gratuité des transports en commun sur leur fréquentation. Application au cas de Clermont Auvergne MétropoleImpact: positive. « free-fare public transport has led to an increase in weekend ridership of 47 % »
- Pauline Charnoz et al. (2018)Communication Costs and the Internal Organisation of Multi-Plant Businesses: Evidence From the Impact of the French High-Speed RailImpact: positive. « HSR induced the creation of one production job for the average affiliate in these industries »Leakage: leakage found. « the shift of around one managerial job from affiliate to HQ »
- Gabriel Loumeau and Antonio Russo (2026)Second-hand gentrification: theory and evidence from high-speed rail extensionsImpact: positive. « the HSR connection raised housing prices in Bordeaux and Rennes by 12%, central-neighborhood median income by 2% »Leakage: leakage found. « Near Montparnasse, the connecting Paris terminal, prices fell 4% relative to the rest of Paris. »
- Thierry Mayer and Corentin Trevien (2017)The impact of urban public transportation evidence from the Paris regionImpact: positive. « the RER opening caused a 8.8% rise in employment in the municipalities connected to the network »
Public debt transactions€58.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
General services€53.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Unemployment€48.5bn2 / 4
- Laura Khoury et al. (2019)Entitled to Leave: the Impact of Unemployment Insurance Eligibility on Employment Duration and Job QualityImpact: negative. « a large negative impact of UI benefits receipt on employment probability up to 21 months after meeting the eligibility criterion »Permanence: lasts. « up to 21 months after meeting the eligibility criterion »
- Laurent Brembilla et al. (2025)Réforme 2019-2021 : premiers résultats d'évaluation du bonus-malusImpact: positive. « Les premières évaluations tendent néanmoins à montrer que le dispositif a joué un rôle, limité, dans cette baisse »
- Laurent Brembilla and Marie-Hélène Nguyen (2025)Réforme 2019-2021 : Évaluation de la dégressivité des allocations les plus élevées (Document d'étude)Impact: mixed. « Nous ne trouvons pas d’effet statistiquement significatif de la dégressivité sur la probabilité de création d’entreprise »
- Brice Fabre and Justine Obser (2026)Réforme 2019-2021 : Évaluation de la nouvelle condition d'ouverture de droit : quels effets sur la durée des contrats ? (Document d'étude)Impact: mixed. « L’effet net sur le nombre de jours de contrat prévus dans les embauches en CDD de moins de 7 mois dans les entreprises de plus de 50 salariés est négatif »
- Maxime Le Bihan and Brice Fabre (2025)Réforme 2019-2021 : Évaluation du nouveau mode de calcul de l'allocation chômage (Document d'étude)Impact: mixed. « cet effet est porté par une hausse des contrats temporaires de moins de six mois »
- Florent Fremigacci and Antoine Terracol (2014)L'activité réduite : effet d'enfermement et effet tremplin (Subsidized temporary jobs in France: lock-in and stepping stone effects)Impact: mixed. « Simulations suggest that the lock-in effect first dominates, but that the overall effect eventually becomes positive. »Permanence: lasts. « a significant positive post-treatment impact on the hazard rate to employment »
- Pierre Granier and Xavier Joutard (1999)L'activité réduite favorise-t-elle la sortie du chômage ?Impact: mixed. « Although the immediate effect is sometimes negative, working a limited number of hours would appear to make future integration into the labour market less difficult. »Permanence: lasts. « Immediate effects combine with the persistent effects of past limited working hours »
- Maëlle Fontaine and Julie Rochut (2014)L'activité réduite des demandeurs d'emploi. Quel impact sur la qualité du retour à l'emploi ?Impact: mixed. « Quality of employment, measured by wages and number of hours worked, is not significantly better after reduced activity. »
- Hélène Benghalem et al. (2023)The Lock-in Effects of Information on Part-Time Unemployment BenefitsImpact: mixed. « The information provision had a significant positive impact on the propensity to work while on claim, but reduced the unemployment exit rate »Leakage: leakage found. « The extension of the duration of compensated unemployment counterbalanced the increase in the number of days worked while on claim »
- Brigitte Dormont et al. (2001)L'effet de l'allocation unique dégressive sur la reprise d'emploiImpact: negative. « the type of degression implemented from 1992 to 1996 probably slowed down the return to work »
- Ioana Marinescu and Daphné Skandalis (2020)Unemployment Insurance and Job Search BehaviorImpact: positive. « search effort (the number of job applications) increases by at least 50% during the year preceding benefits exhaustion »Permanence: lasts. « remains high thereafter »
- Laura Khoury (2021)Choosing Unemployment Benefits: the Role of Adverse Selection and Moral HazardImpact: negative. « choosing a short schedule with higher average benefits increasesunemployment duration by six months »
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2008)The perverse effects of partial employment protection reform: The case of French older workersImpact: negative. « an adverse effect of the tax on the firms' propensity to hire older workers »
- Béatrice Boutchenik and Raphaël Lardeux (2020)The Take-Up of Unemployment Benefit Extensions (Le recours aux extensions d'indemnisation à l'assurance chômage)Impact: positive. « the letter reduced by 14 points the share of claimants who do not certify their full work history »
- Laura Khoury (2023)Unemployment Benefits and Redundancies: Incidence and Timing EffectsImpact: positive. « 10% of layoffs in an 4-week window before the threshold are delayed »
- Olivier Baguelin and Delphine Remillon (2014)Unemployment insurance and management of the older workforce in a dual labor market: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the reform increased the mean age at job termination of workers dismissed close to retirement by 4months »Leakage: leakage found. « dismissals of insiders close to retirement are often scheduled so that they can receive benefits until retirement »
- Thomas Le Barbanchon et al. (2019)Unemployment insurance and reservation wages: Evidence from administrative dataImpact: neutral. « We cannot reject that the elasticity of the reservation wage with respect to PBD is zero »
- Thomas Le Barbanchon (2016)The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in FranceImpact: negative. « the rate of return to work decreased by 28 per cent »
- Pierre Cahuc et al. (2020)Taxation of Temporary Jobs: Good Intentions with Bad Outcomes?Impact: negative. « the taxation of temporary jobs does not reach its objectives: it reduces the mean duration of jobs and decreases job creation »
- Johan Hombert et al. (2020)Can Unemployment Insurance Spur Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « because new firms are more productive, the reform has the impact of raising aggregate productivity »Leakage: leakage found. « the effect of the reform on employment is largely offset by large crowd-out effects »
Military defence€47.7bnnot measurednot measured0 / 6
- Eric Maurin and Theodora Xenogiani (2007)Demand for Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Lessons from the Abolition of Compulsory Conscription in FranceImpact: negative. « a fall in their educational achievement relative to women »
- Pierre Granier et al. (2011)Le service militaire et l'insertion professionnelle des jeunes suivant leur niveau d'étude : les leçons de la suspension de la conscription (Revue économique version: Military Service and the Integration of Young Men into the Labor Market Based on their Level of Education)Impact: mixed. « Les rendements salariaux sont positifs pour les jeunes sortants sans diplôme du système scolaire et ceux de niveau BAC. Ils sont le plus souvent non significatifs pour les autres. »
- Etienne Fize and Charles Louis-Sidois (2020)Military service and political behavior: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « les individus ayant fait leur service militaire sont plus enclins à voter »
- Yajna Govind and Louis Sirugue (2023)To become or not to become French: Conscription, naturalization, and labor market integrationImpact: positive. « the probability of employment for EU males consequently increased by 2 percentage points »
General economic, commercial and labour affairs€45.3bn7 / 14
- Alexandre Gazaniol and Mathilde Lê (2021)The Impact of Public Loan Guarantees on Banks' Risk Taking and Firms' Growth: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « les garanties publiques ont un impact positif sur la survie, l'investissement, le chiffre d'affaires et l'emploi des entreprises »
- Emmanuel Duguet (2012)The effect of the incremental R&D tax credit on the private funding of R&D: an econometric evaluation on French firm level dataImpact: positive. « the tax credit adds to the private funding of R&D »Leakage: no leakage found. « 1 Euro of tax credit would give slightly more than one Euro of total R&D »
- Vincent Dortet-Bernadet and Michaël Sicsic (2017)The effect of R&D subsidies and tax incentives on employment: an evaluation for small firms in FranceImpact: positive. « between 18 and 34% of the supplementary aid obtained by businesses between 2008 and 2010 was used to finance new jobs »Leakage: leakage found. « only between 18 and 34% of the supplementary aid obtained by businesses between 2008 and 2010 was used to finance new jobs for highly qualified workers »
- Clément Carbonnier et al. (2018)Évaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière d'emplois et de salairesImpact: neutral. « les entreprises les plus intensément ciblées par le CICE n'ont pas connu de hausse de l'emploi entre 2013 et 2015 »
- Rémi Monin and Milena Suarez Castillo (2018)L'effet du CICE sur les prix : une double analyse sur données sectorielles et individuellesImpact: neutral. « cet effet déflationniste ne peut être distingué d'une baisse générale des prix dans ces secteurs »
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2019)Évaluation d'impact de la réforme 2008 du crédit impôt rechercheImpact: positive. « des effets positifs de la réforme sur les dépenses de R&D de l'ordre de 15 % à 18 % »
- Clément Carbonnier et al. (2022)Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax creditLeakage: leakage found. « Wage gains load on incumbents in high -skill occupations. »
- Clément Brébion (2019)Vocational training and industrial relations in France and Germany (PhD thesis, chapter 3)Impact: positive. « a limited but significantly negative elasticity of the number of apprentices hired to training costs »Leakage: leakage found. « the subsidy fosters turnover strategies »
- Pierre Cahuc et al. (2014)Do Hiring Credits Work in Recessions?Impact: positive. « the program has had a strong and rapid impact on employment »
- Pierre Cahuc et al. (2019)The Effectiveness of Hiring CreditsImpact: positive. « had significant positive employment effects »Leakage: no leakage found. « no effects on wages »
- Laetitia Challe et al. (2020)Les effets des emplois francs sur les discriminations dans le recrutement : une évaluation par testing répétésImpact: neutral. « n'a pas coïncidé avec un changement des discriminations dans l'accès à l'emploi »
- Bruno Crépon et al. (2005)Counseling the unemployed: does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence?Impact: positive. « We find significant favorable effects on both outcomes »Permanence: lasts. « the program shifts the incidence of recurrence, one year after employment, from 33 to 26% »
- Denis Fougère et al. (2009)Does the public employment service affect search effort and outcomes?Impact: positive. « the exit rate from unemployment increases with the arrival rate of job contacts obtained by the public employment service »
- Bruno Crépon et al. (2013)Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized ExperimentImpact: positive. « were significantly more likely to have found a stable job than those who were not »Leakage: leakage found. « they appear to have come partly at the expense of eligible workers who did not benefit from the program »Permanence: fades. « But these gains are transitory »
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2014)Private and public provision of counseling to job seekers: evidence from a large controlled experimentImpact: positive. « an effect per beneficiary that is twice as large under the public as under the private program »
- Roland Rathelot and Patrick Sillard (2008)Zones Franches Urbaines : quels effets sur l'emploi salarié et les créations d'établissements ?Impact: positive. « L'impact du classement en ZFU sur les créations d'établissement et d'emplois s'avère alors significatif et positif. »Leakage: leakage found. « résulte pour les deux tiers d'un déplacement d'activités économiques en provenance de zones non ciblées »
- Pauline Givord et al. (2012)A Long-Term Evaluation of the First Generation of the French Urban Enterprise ZonesImpact: positive. « a strong positive impact of the Entreprise Zone policy on employment and business location during the first years of the policy »Permanence: fades. « after some years, the early positive results are reduced »
- Thierry Mayer et al. (2012)Les effets de (re)localisation des Zones FranchesImpact: mixed. « sans grand impact sur l'emploi des résidents »Leakage: leakage found. « cet effet est largement dû à des (re)localisations opportunistes de petites entreprises au sein des villes considérées »
- Laurent Gobillon et al. (2012)Do unemployed workers benefit from enterprise zones? The French experienceImpact: positive. « It had a small but significant effect on the rate at which unemployed workers find a job »Permanence: fades. « This effect is localized and significant only in the short run »
- Pauline Givord et al. (2013)Place-based tax exemptions and displacement effects: An evaluation of the Zones Franches Urbaines programImpact: mixed. « significant effects on business creation and on employment while the effect on firms that were located in the treated areas before the program is not significant »Leakage: leakage found. « significant negative spillovers of the program on neighboring areas »
- Anthony Briant et al. (2015)Can Tax Breaks Beat Geography? Lessons from the French Enterprise Zone ExperienceImpact: mixed. « only accessible neighborhoods were able to draw benefits from tax breaks and social exemptions »
- Laurent Gobillon and Thierry Magnac (2016)Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls
- Thierry Mayer et al. (2017)The impact of Urban Enterprise Zones on establishment location decisions and labor market outcomes: evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the policy has a positive effect on employment, especially for low-wage workers »Leakage: leakage found. « this positive effect is entirely due to within-municipality diversion effects »
- Pauline Givord et al. (2018)A long-term evaluation of the first generation of French urban enterprise zonesImpact: positive. « a strong positive impact of the Entreprise Zone policy on employment and business location during the first years of the policy »Permanence: fades. « but gains faded as closures rose »
- Pauline Charnoz (2018)Do Enterprise Zones Help Residents? Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the unemployment rate of French EZ residents has decreased significantly as a result of the program »
- Pascale Lofredi (2005)Stimulating rural development through tax incentives: an evaluation of France's Zones de revitalisation rurale (ZRR) programImpact: neutral. « no positive effects were found, apart from a mixed impact on certain particularly targeted sectors »
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2015)Replacing churches and mason lodges? Tax exemptions and rural developmentImpact: neutral. « We find no impact of the program on total employment or the number of businesses »
- Jérémy Hervelin and Pierre Villedieu (2022)The Benefits of Early Work Experience for School Dropouts: Evidence from a Field ExperimentImpact: positive. « the chances to be invited for a job interview are more than doubled »
- Bruno Crépon et al. (2012)Training the Unemployed in France: How Does it Affect Unemployment Duration and Recurrence?Impact: mixed. « training does not accelerate the exit from unemployment, but has a significant and positive effect on the duration of the subsequent employment spell »Permanence: lasts. « a significant and positive effect on the duration of the subsequent employment spell »
- Bruno Crépon et al. (2018)Information shocks and the empirical evaluation of training programs during unemployment spellsImpact: mixed. « notification has a strong positive effect on the training probability but a negative one on the probability of leaving unemployment »
- Héloïse Burlat (2024)Everybody's got to learn sometime? A causal machine learning evaluation of training programmes for jobseekers in FranceImpact: mixed. « Only qualifying training shows a positive medium-term effect. »Permanence: mixed. « a short-term negative lock-in effect for all programmes, persisting in the medium term for combined training »
- Kevin Michael Frick et al. (2025)Skill Distance Between Occupations and Post-Training Professional Transitions of JobseekersImpact: positive. « the "return to employment" differential between jobseekers with and without training is driven by a reallocation of workers »
- Mathilde Gaini et al. (2018)Résultats de l'évaluation quantitative de la Garantie jeunesImpact: positive. « a eu un effet sur le taux d'emploi des bénéficiaires »Permanence: lasts. « effet qui perdure dans les mois qui suivent la sortie de l'accompagnement »
- This site: Apprenticeship hiring aidApprenticeship hiring aidImpact: not informed. « Descriptive: higher-education contracts fell by 17% (early 2025) and 38% (early 2026) relative to secondary when they lost the aid, while large firms lost it at every level; with the same aid for both, the ratio still fell by 8% in March-December 2025. »
- This site: France Relance industrial grantsFrance Relance industrial grantsImpact: neutral. « Among surviving firms, winners' turnover moved by +2.3% against matched firms by 2024 (95% confidence interval -4.7% to +9.4%), operating margin by +1.0 points (-0.3 to +2.4); winners published accounts 7.6 points less often. The CO2 declared by their facilities moved by +3.3% against matched facilities by 2024 (95% interval -7.1% to +13.8%). »
Medical products, appliances and equipment€43.7bnnot measured1 / 1
- Riou França L et al. (2013)A cohort study of therapeutic prescriptions after the end of phytotherapy drug reimbursement by French Social SecurityImpact: negative. « patients exposed to de-reimbursement were more likely to switch to psychotropic drugs (OR = 1.46) »Leakage: leakage found. « patients exposed to de-reimbursement were more likely to switch to psychotropic drugs (OR = 1.46) »
- Laurie Rachet-Jacquet et al. (2021)Hospital payment schemes and high-priced drugs: Evidence from the French Add-on ListImpact: neutral. « Prescription volumes, generic shares and price levels are not systematically affected by delisting. »
- Marion Tano et al. (2023)What About Offering a Financial Incentive Directly to Clinical Units to Encourage the Use of Biosimilars? Results of a Two-Year National Experiment in FranceImpact: positive. « The French experimental incentive appeared to be more effective at increasing biosimilar use. »
- Marion Tano et al. (2024)Comparison of Two Financial Incentives to Encourage the Use of Adalimumab Biosimilars: Results of a French Experiment Close to CliniciansImpact: positive. « General case hospitals had a significantly lower mean biosimilar uptake (16.7% vs 23.2%, p = 0.029) »
- Lecerf S et al. (2026)Long-term effect of discontinuing anticholinesterase treatment on cognitive decline and mortality in Alzheimer's disease in France: a quasi-experiment and target trial emulation studyImpact: mixed. « had faster cognitive decline (per the same abstract) but no significant difference in five-year mortality »
Executive and legislative organs, financial and fiscal affairs, external affairs€42.8bnnot measurednot measured
- Gabrielle Fack and Camille Landais (2016)The effect of tax enforcement on tax elasticities: Evidence from charitable contributions in FranceImpact: positive. « The reform led to a substantial drop in the amount of contributions reported to the administration »
Pre-primary and primary education€42.2bnnot measured2 / 2
- Pierre Merle (2022)Le dédoublement des classes de CP et CE1 : quel bilan ?Impact: neutral. « a exercé des effets modérés, voire nuls, sur la progression scolaire des élèves »
- Laurent Lima et al. (2020)Réduction de la taille des classes : évaluer les effets au-delà des modifications de performancesImpact: mixed. « de faibles modifications à la fois de la qualité des interactions et du type d'interactions langagières mais pas de variation de l'implication des élèves »
- Pascal Bressoux et al. (2009)Teachers' Training, Class Size and Students' Outcomes: Learning from Administrative Forecasting MistakesImpact: positive. « a small class is beneficial to students, especially to low-achieving ones »
- Pascal Bressoux et al. (2019)Reducing the number of pupils in French first-grade classes: Is there evidence of contemporaneous and carryover effects?Impact: positive. « significant positive contemporaneous effect of the class size reduction in Grade 1 »Permanence: fades. « At the end of Grade 2, the effects have faded. »
- Adrien Bouguen et al. (2017)La taille des classes influence-t-elle la réussite scolaire ?Impact: positive. « ces effets sont élevés »
- Céline Piquée and Bruno Suchaut (2004)Un maître supplémentaire dans la classe. Quels effets sur les progressions au cycle III ?Impact: neutral. « les élèves en difficulté pris en charge dans des petits groupes ne progressent pas plus que les élèves de caractéristiques comparables »
- Christelle Dumas and Arnaud Lefranc (2012)Early schooling and later outcomes : Evidence from pre-school extension in FranceImpact: positive. « We find some sizeable and persistent effect of preschool »Permanence: lasts. « sizeable and persistent effect of preschool »
- Dominique Goux and Eric Maurin (2010)Public School Availability for Two-year Olds and Mothers' Labour SupplyImpact: mixed. « early school availability has a significant employment effect on lone mothers, but no effect on two-parent families »Permanence: lasts. « the effect grows larger as the child grows older »
- Géraldine Farges et al. (2023)Scolarisation à 2 ans : effets sur le développement des enfants et la réduction des inégalitésImpact: mixed. « En revanche, elle n'a aucun effet sur les capacités de raisonnement non verbal. »
- Dominique Goux et al. (2017)Reading enjoyment and reading skills: Lessons from an experiment with first grade childrenImpact: mixed. « taste for reading is significantly improved. However, there is no indication that this translates into higher reading skills »
- Thomas Piketty and Mathieu Valdenaire (2006)L'impact de la taille des classes sur la réussite scolaire dans les écoles, collèges et lycées français - Estimations à partir du panel primaire 1997 et du panel secondaire 1995Impact: positive. « Une réduction d'un élève par classe de la taille de CE1 conduit à une augmentation de 0,7 point du score »
- Maxime Fajeau et al. (2025)Efficacité économique de la réduction de la taille des classesImpact: positive. « une forte rentabilité de la politique dans l'enseignement primaire »
- Julien Silhol and Lionel Wilner (2022 (WP); 2026 (journal))Teachers' Desired Mobility to Disadvantaged Schools: Do Financial Incentives Matter?Impact: positive. « most responsive teachers have less experience and work already in those areas »
Survivors€40.6bnnot measured0 / 1
- Léa Cimelli (2023)Are the widowed too much insured? Survivor's pensions and living standards upon widowhood in FranceImpact: positive. « Survivor's pensions largely ensure that women's living standards do not plummet upon widowhood »Leakage: leakage found. « those earning more tend to be overcompensated »
Social exclusion n.e.c.€36.5bn3 / 4
- Yves Goulard de Curraize and Helene Perivier (2009)L'allocation de parent isole a-t-elle favorise l'inactivite des femmes ?Impact: neutral. « la réaction de l'offre de travail des mères isolées a été faible au regard de la désincitation potentiellement introduite par l'API »
- Mathilde Badufle et al. (2026)L'impact du Contrat d'engagement jeune sur les trajectoires professionnelles des bénéficiairesImpact: neutral. « L’effet mesuré reste toutefois modeste et statistiquement peu significatif en moyenne »
- Mathilde Badufle et al. (2026)Le contrat d'engagement jeune - jeunes en rupture : une évaluation quantitativeImpact: positive. « les jeunes traités travaillent en emploi salarié, en moyenne, 7 points de pourcentage de plus que le groupe contrôle »
- Arthur Félix W. Sawadogo and Océane Vilches (2024)Bénéficier de la Garantie jeunes : une plus-value pour l'insertion des jeunes en situation de vulnérabilité ?Impact: positive. « la Garantie jeunes exerce un effet positif mais modeste sur l'insertion »
- Mathilde Gaini et al. (2018)Résultats de l'évaluation quantitative de la Garantie jeunesImpact: positive. « a eu un effet sur le taux d'emploi des bénéficiaires »Permanence: lasts. « effet qui perdure dans les mois qui suivent la sortie de l'accompagnement »
- Michaël Sicsic (2022)Does labour income react more to income tax or means-tested benefits reforms?Impact: mixed. « around 0.1 in response to in-work benefit reforms, while I found no statistically significant response to family allowance reforms »
- Arthur Heim (2024)Social investment and the changing face of poverty: essays on the design and evaluation of family and social policies in France (chapter 2)Impact: neutral. « the programme has no average effect on labour market participation and poverty after the end of the training »Permanence: fades. « initially negative effects that diminish over time »
- Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanié (2002)Labour market institutions and employment in FranceImpact: negative. « the minimum wage explains close to 15% of non-employment for these women »
- Laura Castell et al. (2025)Take-up of Social Benefits: Experimental Evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « a meeting with social services to assess eligibility and help with applications to social benefits increased new benefit take-up by 29 percent. By contrast, an online simulator that gave personalized information on benefit eligibility did not increase take-up »
- Laurent Lequien (2011)Essais d'évaluation de politique publique dans les champs de l'éducation, de la santé et des politiques d'emploi (chapitre 1)
- Arthur Heim and Alexandra Galitzine (2024)Social investment and the changing face of poverty: essays on the design and evaluation of family and social policies in France (chapter 3)Impact: negative. « indicating significant disincentives to employment and increased in-work poverty »
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2026)Impact de la revalorisation de la prime d'activité sur les comportements d'activitéImpact: mixed. « elle ne génère aucun effet détectable sur l’emploi »
- Marco Fugazza et al. (2003)L'influence de la PPE sur l'activité des femmes : une estimation à partir du modèle InesImpact: neutral. « l'impact de la PPE demeure limité »
- Elena G.F. Stancanelli (2008)Evaluating the impact of the French tax credit on the employment rate of womenImpact: mixed. « We find evidence of a negative employment effect for married women »
- Hans Bloemen and Elena Stancanelli (2007)A Model with Endogenous Programme Participation: Evaluating the Tax Credit in FranceImpact: neutral. « We find no significant impact of the tax credit on either employment or hours of French women. »
- Marion Cochard et al. (2008)Les effets incitatifs de la prime pour l'emploi : une évaluation difficileImpact: neutral. « Il n'apparaît pas d'effet significatif de la PPE sur l'emploi »
- Olivier Bargain and Karina Doorley (2011)Caught in the trap? Welfare's disincentive and the labor supply of single menImpact: negative. « the RMI reduces the participation of uneducated single men by 7–10% at age 25 »
- Olivier Bargain and Augustin Vicard (2014)Le RMI et son successeur le RSA découragent-ils certains jeunes de travailler ? Une analyse sur les jeunes autour de 25 ansImpact: neutral. « le RMI et le RSA n'ont pas d'effet désincitatif marqué sur l'emploi des jeunes autour de cet âge »Permanence: fades. « mais elle disparait par la suite »
- Marc Gurgand and David N. Margolis (2008)Does work pay in France? Monetary incentives, hours constraints, and the guaranteed minimum incomeImpact: mixed. « have little impact in this population due to their very limited scope. The negative income tax (Prime pour l'emploi), seems to be an exception. »
- Matthieu Chemin and Etienne Wasmer (2021)Ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of the 1989 French welfare reform using a natural experiment: the 1908 social laws in Alsace-MoselleImpact: negative. « a 3% fall in employment (among unskilled workers 25-55 years old) »
- Antoine Terracol (2009)Guaranteed minimum income and unemployment duration in FranceImpact: negative. « RMI receipt has a strong negative impact during the first months of program participation »Permanence: fades. « this disincentive effect quickly falls to insignificant levels after six months »
- Olivier Bargain and Karina Doorley (2017)The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining Regression Discontinuity and a Behavioral Model
- Thomas Breda et al. (2026)Évaluation quantitative de l'accompagnement rénové des bénéficiaires du RSAImpact: positive. « la probabilité d’être en emploi salarié à six mois augmente d’environ 0,9 point de pourcentage dans les zones traitées »Leakage: leakage found. « les effets négatifs observés sur les bénéficiaires non éligibles des zones d’emploi compensent en partie les effets positifs dans les zones d’expérimentation »
- Guillaume Allègre (2011)Le RSA : redistribution vers les travailleurs pauvres et offre de travailImpact: negative. « en net, 12 000 individus renonceraient à travailler »
- Gedeão Locks and Josselin Thuilliez (2023)The impact of minimum income on homelessness: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the RSA benefit reduces the homelessness rate by 20% among young adults aged 22 to 27 »
- Véronique Simonnet and Elisabeth Danzin (2014)L'effet du RSA sur le taux de retour à l'emploi des allocataires. Une analyse en double différence selon le nombre et l'âge des enfantsImpact: mixed. « S'ils ne mettent pas en évidence de réel effet du RSA sur l'emploi des hommes »
- Sylvain Chareyron et al. (2022)Droits et devoirs du RSA : l'impact des contrôles sur la participation des bénéficiairesImpact: positive. « l'avertissement augmente la participation aux démarches d'insertion et les sorties du RSA »
- Sylvain Chareyron et al. (2018)Raising Take-Up of Social Assistance Benefits through a Simple Mailing: Evidence from a French Field ExperimentImpact: mixed. « pourrait permettre d'accroître la participation de certains types de bénéficiaires »
Police services€28.9bnnot measured2 / 7
- Laurent Carnis and Etienne Blais (2013)An assessment of the safety effects of the French speed camera programImpact: positive. « The fatality rate per 100,000 vehicles fell by 20% »Permanence: fades. « a 26.2% reduction was recorded in the first month but dropped to 0.8 % for the last observation of the series »
- Etienne Blais and Laurent Carnis (2015)Improving the safety effect of speed camera programs through innovations: Evidence from the French experienceImpact: positive. « the ASEP was associated with a decrease of 19.7% in traffic fatalities and crashes with injuries »
- Guillaume Gormand (2017)L'évaluation des politiques publiques de sécurité : résultats et enseignements de l'étude d'un programme de vidéosurveillance de la Ville de MontpellierImpact: neutral. « a marginal contribution of CCTV cameras against crime in public areas »
- Sebastian Roché et al. (2025)And the law relaxed the rules. A quasi-experimental study of fatal police shootings in EuropeImpact: negative. « The monthly number of killings has significantly increased for the national police »
Community development€27.2bn0 / 2
- Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre and Imen Daly (2026)Who Builds What When Subsidies Flow? Evidence from Place-Based Housing Policies in Small and Mid-Sized French CitiesImpact: positive. « Policy exposure increases authorized housing supply by about 45% »Leakage: no leakage found. « we find little evidence of average price capitalization »
- Lucie Letrouit (2020)Three essays on the economics of social integration in an urban context (PhD thesis, essay 3)Impact: mixed. « the program had non-significant and, in any case, very limited effects (i.e. smaller than 3.5%) on housing prices »
- Sylvain Chareyron et al. (2022)Externalities from urban renewal: evidence from a French programImpact: neutral. « we find no significant aggregate impact of the program on housing prices »
- Sylvain Chareyron et al. (2022)Can subsidies paid directly to employers reduce residential discrimination in employment? An assessment based on serial field experimentsImpact: positive. « the programme decreases residential discrimination after six months »Permanence: fades. « we cannot conclude that the effect is still present 12 months later »
- This site: Petites villes de demain and Territoires d'industriePetites villes de demain and Territoires d'industrieImpact: mixed. « Private jobs moved by +0.0% (Petites villes de demain, 95% confidence interval -1.7% to +1.7%) and +0.4% (Territoires d'industrie, -2.1% to +2.9%) against matched communes by 2025; placebos pass. Industrial jobs in the communes of Territoires d'industrie moved by -6.0% between the 2015 and 2021 censuses (95% interval -11.0% to -1.0%). »
R&D Economic affairs€21.4bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Housing€21.1bnnot measured2 / 3
- Anne Laferrère and David Le Blanc (2002)Comment les aides au logement affectent-elles les loyers ?Impact: positive. « Grâce à l'aide, les ménages ont pu se loger mieux »Leakage: leakage found. « Il y a donc eu aussi augmentation pure de loyer »
- Gabrielle Fack (2005)Pourquoi les ménages pauvres paient-ils des loyers de plus en plus élevés ?Leakage: leakage found. « entre 50 % et 80 % des allocations logement perçues par ces ménages auraient été absorbées par les augmentations de leurs loyers »
- Gabrielle Fack (2006)Are housing benefit an effective way to redistribute income? Evidence from a natural experiment in FranceImpact: positive. « The only possible effect of the reform is a small increase in housing quality. »Leakage: leakage found. « one additional euro of housing benefit leads to an increase of 78 cents in the rent paid by new benefit claimants »
- Anne Laferrère and David Le Blanc (2004)Gone with the Windfall: How Do Housing Allowances Affect Student Co-residence?Impact: positive. « housing allowances provide an increased opportunity for students to move out of their parents' home »Leakage: leakage found. « as much as half of the allowance came as a windfall gai to students and their parents »
- Céline Grislain-Letrémy and Corentin Trevien (2014)The Impact of Housing Subsidies on the Rental Sector: the French ExampleImpact: neutral. « higher subsidies seem to have almost no effect on housing quality and to have no impact on the number of offered rental dwellings »Leakage: leakage found. « housing subsidies had an inflationist impact »
- Gabrielle Fack (2006)Are housing benefit an effective way to redistribute income? Evidence from a natural experiment in FranceLeakage: leakage found. « one additional euro of housing benefit leads to an increase of 78 cents in the rent paid by new benefit claimants »
- Céline Grislain-Letrémy and Corentin Trevien (2014)The Impact of Housing Subsidies on the Rental SectorImpact: neutral. « higher subsidies seem to have almost no effect on housing quality and to have no impact on the number of offered rental dwellings »Leakage: leakage found. « housing subsidies had an inflationist impact »
Subsidiary services to education€20bnnot measurednot measured1 / 2
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2017)Ready for Boarding? The Effects of a Boarding School for Disadvantaged StudentsImpact: mixed. « this effect mostly comes from strong students »
Basic research€19.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Cultural services€19bnnot measurednot measured3 / 11
- Abel Aussant (2025)What Do Culture Vouchers Really Buy? Evidence from France's 'pass Culture' Policy EffectsImpact: mixed. « while the voucher does not affect participation in institutional highbrow cultural activities like museum visits, theater, or opera attendance, it significantly increases engagement with commercial popular culture »
Waste management€15.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Recreational and sporting services€15.6bnnot measurednot measured
- Swantje Allmers and Wolfgang Maennig (2009)Economic impacts of the FIFA Soccer World Cups in France 1998, Germany 2006, and outlook for South Africa 2010Impact: neutral. « For France, no effects could be isolated. »
Fuel and energy€15.5bnnot measured1 / 9
- Odran Bonnet et al. (2024)Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers?Impact: positive. « we estimate a price elasticity of fuel demand of -0.31 »
- Marine Adam et al. (2024)Cross-border shopping for fuel at the France-Germany borderLeakage: leakage found. « When relative prices increase by 1%, the relative cross-border demand decreases by 7.8%. »
Tertiary education€12.3bnnot measured2 / 2
- Gabrielle Fack and Julien Grenet (2015)Improving College Access and Success for Low-Income Students: Evidence from a Large Need-Based Grant ProgramImpact: positive. « increases their college enrollment rates by 5 to 7 percent »
- Sébastien Grobon and François-Charles Wolff (2022)Do public scholarships crowd out parental transfers? Evidence at the intensive margin from FranceLeakage: leakage found. « a substantial part of student scholarship benefits low-income parents through a reduction in the money they give to their student children »
- Camille Remigereau and Clara Schäper (2024)The Impact of Student Aid Eligibility on Higher Education ApplicationsImpact: mixed. « the financial aid reform did not affect application decisions for all students, but it impacted students differently based on gender and academic performance »
- Sophie Morlaix and Cathy Perret (2013)L'évaluation du Plan Réussite en Licence : quelles actions pour quels effets ? Analyse sur les résultats des étudiants en première année universitaireImpact: neutral. « Ces derniers soulignent les difficultés à appréhender un effet positif des actions du PRL. »
Other industries€11.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Education not definable by level€8.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Housing development€8.4bn4 / 5
- Laurent Gobillon and David le Blanc (2008)Economic effects of upfront subsidies to ownership: The case of the Prêt à Taux Zéro in FranceImpact: positive. « the PTZ significantly increases access to ownership by allowing some households to leave the rental sector sooner »Leakage: leakage found. « We estimate that 85% of the beneficiaries in a 4-year period would still have moved to own in the absence of the subsidy. »
- Ilya Eryzhenskiy et al. (2025)Zero-Interest Green Loans and Home Energy Retrofits: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « eligibility to the program had a 20-22% impact on the extensive margin of investment »Permanence: fades. « but only in the first two years »
- Guillaume Chapelle et al. (2018)Impact of a Housing Tax Credit on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from FranceImpact: neutral. « without reducing the production of new housing units »Leakage: leakage found. « the removal of these tax credits decelerated house prices »
- Pierre-Henri Bono and Alain Trannoy (2019)The Impact of the 'Scellier' Income Tax Relief on Building Land Prices in FranceLeakage: leakage found. « point to land price capitalisation »
- Sylvain Chareyron et al. (2021)Ownership incentives and housing affordability: Evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « Taking both markets together, the overall effect is non-significant. »Leakage: leakage found. « the price of new housing increased by 30% »
- Imen Daly (2024)Housing Policy and Urban Development in France (PhD thesis, chapter 1)Impact: positive. « the scheme significantly increased renovation activities »
- Claire Dujardin and Florence Goffette-Nagot (2009)Does public housing occupancy increase unemployment?Impact: neutral. « living in public housing has no effect on the probability of being unemployed in France »
- Pierre-Henri Bono et al. (2012)Analyse Contrefactuelle de l'Article 55 de la Loi SRU sur la Production de Logements SociauxImpact: positive. « For a quadrennial production gain is estimated at 0.35 additional percentage point »
- Laurent Gobillon and Benjamin Vignolles (2016)Évaluation de l'effet d'une politique spatialisée d'accès au logement. La loi SRUImpact: positive. « La loi sru aurait eu un effet positif significatif sur la construction de logements sociaux »Permanence: lasts. « croissant au cours du temps »
- Guillaume Chapelle et al. (2025)Building without income mixing: Public housing quotas in FranceImpact: mixed. « the law stimulated public housing construction in treated municipalities, but only slightly increased the presence of low-income households »
Law courts€8.3bnnot measured3 / 5
- Arnaud Philippe (2015)How far do criminal understand the criminal law? Evidence from French mandatory sentencingImpact: positive. « the law equally deterred targeted and untargeted crimes in the short term »Permanence: mixed. « while only targeted behaviors remain affected in the medium term »
- Benjamin Monnery (2017)The Cost of Slow Justice: How Delayed Incarceration Fuels RecidivismImpact: positive. « fast-track incarceration has large significant deterrent effects on recidivism »
- Arnaud Philippe (2017)Do jurors and professional judges differ in their treatment of crime?: Evidence from French reformImpact: neutral. « do not permit me to identify any change in the probability of being convicted or in sentences »
- Romain Espinosa et al. (2017)Fewer courts, less justice? Evidence from the 2008 French reform of labor courtsImpact: mixed. « duration did not increase, but the demand for litigation decreased »
- Anne Épaulard and Chloé Zapha (2023)Corporate Bankruptcy and the (In-)Efficiency of Small Commercial CourtsImpact: positive. « the reform unambiguously reduced Type 1 errors for small firms in absorbed court and left unchanged Type 2 errors »
- Matthieu Belarouci et al. (2024)Did the French reform of the judicial map affect conciliation activities?Impact: mixed. « the number of conciliators decreased more significantly in treated courts than in control courts »
Public health services€8bnnot measured3 / 3
- Guillaume E et al. (2017)Patient navigation to reduce social inequalities in colorectal cancer screening participation: A cluster randomized controlled trialImpact: positive. « The intervention mainly with phone navigation increased individual participation (OR=1.19 [1.10, 1.29]) »
- Denis B et al. (2017)Tailored telephone counselling to increase participation of underusers in a population-based colorectal cancer-screening programme with faecal occult blood test: A randomized controlled trialImpact: positive. « participation was significantly higher in the two intervention groups than in the control group »
- Thomas C. Buchmueller and Léontine Goldzahl (2018)The effect of organized breast cancer screening on mammography use: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « France's organized screening program has reduced socioeconomic disparities in access to mammography »
- Affret A et al. (2020)Effectiveness of the e-Tabac Info Service application for smoking cessation: a pragmatic randomised controlled trialImpact: neutral. « Use of the e-TIS app was not associated with a higher rate of smoking cessation. »
- Guignard R et al. (2021)Effectiveness of 'Mois sans tabac 2016': A French social marketing campaign against smokingImpact: positive. « These analyses suggest the effectiveness of the 2016 Mois sans tabac intervention »
- Berlin I et al. (2021)Financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy: multicentre randomised controlled trialImpact: positive. « Financial incentives to reward smoking abstinence compared with no financial incentives were associated with an increased abstinence rate in pregnant smokers. »
- Delphine Teigné et al. (2024)Organized cervical cancer screening: A randomized controlled trial assessing the effect of sending invitation lettersImpact: positive. « resulted in a modest increase in participation among non-adherent women six months later »
- Thilly N et al. (2024)Effectiveness of a School- and Primary Care-Based HPV Vaccination Intervention: The PrevHPV Cluster Randomized TrialImpact: mixed. « At-school HPV vaccination significantly increased vaccination coverage. The trial did not show a significant effect for training GPs and education and motivation. »
- Guignard R et al. (2026)Effectiveness of an in-office intervention to improve general practitioners' support for tobacco smoking cessation: results from a randomised controlled trial (TABAC-PRO)Impact: positive. « Providing simple paper-based tools was associated with a greater likelihood of GPs discussing smoking cessation with their patients. »
- Bocquier A et al. (2026)One-year impact on HPV vaccination coverage of a school- and primary care-based intervention: the PrevHPV cluster randomised trialImpact: positive. « School-based vaccination was effective in increasing HPV VC in the medium term »Permanence: lasts. « effective in increasing HPV VC in the medium term »
Fire-protection services€7.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Broadcasting and publishing services€7.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Health€6.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting€6.2bn1 / 3
- Andrea Pufahl and Christoph R. Weiss (2009)Farm Structure and the Effects of Agri-Environmental Programs: Results from a Matching Analysis for European CountriesImpact: positive. « significant effects of AE participation on production (Germany, France) and farm profits (France, Ireland, United Kingdom) »
- Sylvain Chabé-Ferret and Julie Subervie (2013)How much green for the buck? Estimating additional and windfall effects of French agro-environmental schemes by DID-matchingImpact: mixed. « the AES subsidizing conversion to organic farming has low windfall effects and high additionality »Leakage: leakage found. « at the expense of almost 7 ha of windfall effect »
- Linda Arata and Paolo Sckokai (2016)The Impact of Agri-environmental Schemes on Farm Performance in Five E.U. Member States: A DID-Matching ApproachImpact: mixed. « The effects of the AESs adoption largely depend on the share of the agri-environmental payment on farm revenue. »
- Laure Kuhfuss and Julie Subervie (2018)Do European agri-environment measures help reduce herbicide use? Evidence from viticulture in FranceImpact: positive. « the quantity of herbicides used by participants in the scheme in 2011 ranges from 38 to 53 percent below what they would have used without the scheme »
- Margaux Lapierre et al. (2019)Providing technical assistance to peer networks to reduce pesticide use in Europe: Evidence from the French Ecophyto planImpact: positive. « participants have used 8 to 22 percent lesser pesticides than they would have used in the absence of the program »
- Sylvain Chabé-Ferret et al. (2019)Can we nudge farmers into saving water? Evidence from a randomised experimentImpact: mixed. « though it reduced consumption among the heaviest irrigators »
- Marine Coinon (chapter 2 co-authored with Sylvain Chabé-Ferret, Arnaud Reynaud, Eva Tène) (2022)Essais sur les externalités spatiales associées à l'agriculture biologique (Essays on Spatial Externalities and Organic Farming), chapter 2Impact: positive. « organic farming decreases nitrate concentrations in water by up to 1.3mg/l »
- Rose Deperrois et al. (2023)Social Learning for the Green Transition: Evidence from a Pesticide Reduction PolicyImpact: positive. « doubling the proportion of participants would reduce pesticide use by about 10% within representative cohorts »
- Alexandre Sauquet (2023)Ex post analysis of the crop diversification measure of CAP greening in FranceImpact: positive. « farms greater than 30 ha increased compliance with the measure and the number of crops grown on their lands »
- Thierno Bocar Diop and Lionel Védrine (2024)Did crop diversity criterion from CAP green payments affect both economic and environmental farm performances? Quasi-experimental evidence from FranceImpact: mixed. « This suggests that the crop diversity criterion did not result in much additional change. »
- Isabelle Chort et al. (2024)Agricultural policies and biodiversity: impact of the CAP greening on bird abundance and diversity in FranceImpact: mixed. « an increase in overall bird abundance after 2015 in sites with a higher ex-ante proportion of arable land, driven by a small number of generalist species, and no impact on species richness »Permanence: fades. « the positive effects were limited to the first two years »
- Valentin Cocco et al. (2025)Guilty or scapegoat? Land consolidation and the hedgerow declineImpact: negative. « consolidation led to a significant reduction in hedgerow density of -14.3m/ha »
- Valentin Cocco (2025)Haie-conomie — Analyses économiques de l'évolution des paysages agricoles (Hedgerow-nomics — Economic analyses of agricultural landscape changes), chapter 2
Waste water management€5.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Prisons€5.1bnnot measured2 / 3
- Eric Maurin and Aurélie Ouss (2009)Sentence Reductions and Recidivism: Lessons from the Bastille Day Quasi ExperimentImpact: negative. « collective sentence reductions increase recidivism »
- Anaïs Henneguelle et al. (2016)Better at Home than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in FranceImpact: positive. « estimated reductions in probability of reconviction of 6-7 percentage points (9-11%) after five years »Permanence: lasts. « has long-lasting beneficial effects on recidivism »
- Benjamin Monnery et al. (2020)Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival ModelImpact: positive. « semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders' hazard of recidivism »
Foreign economic aid€4.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Pollution abatement€4.3bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Social protection n.e.c.€3.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Water supply€2.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Economic affairs n.e.c.€2.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Defence n.e.c.€2.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Foreign military aid€2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Public order and safety n.e.c.€1.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Street lighting€1.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Housing and community amenities n.e.c.€1.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Environmental protection€1.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Defence€1.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Protection of biodiversity and landscape€1.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Health n.e.c.€1.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Mining, manufacturing and construction€1.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Communication€1.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Environmental protection n.e.c.€1.5bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Post-secondary non-tertiary education€1.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
General public services n.e.c.€867mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Religious and other community services€744mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Education n.e.c.€575mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Recreation, culture and religion n.e.c.€232mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Civil defence€229mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D General public services€6.1mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Transfers of a general character between different levels of government€0.1mnot measured0 / 8
- Benoit de Lapasse and Julien Desclodur (2025)Les trajectoires budgétaires des communes nouvelles : comparaison avec leurs "proches voisines"Impact: positive. « les recettes et dépenses de fonctionnement progressent nettement dans les deux années suivant la fusion »
- Roberto Brunetti (2026)Municipalities' Voting Power and Housing Supply: Evidence from French Intermunicipal CooperationImpact: mixed. « with no statistically significant change in the total number of permits it issues »
- Andrew C. Eggers et al. (2018)Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions
- Abel François et al. (2025)Legislature Size does Matter for Public Spending: Causal Evidence and Mechanisms at WorkImpact: positive. « the council size is clearly a positive causal factor of municipal public spending »
- Marie-Laure Breuillé et al. (2018)Inter-municipal cooperation and local taxationImpact: positive. « inter-municipal cooperation led to an increase in the four (municipal plus inter-municipal) tax rates »
- Touria Jaaidane et al. (2023)Inter-municipal cooperation and public employment: evidence from French municipalitiesImpact: positive. « cooperation triggers personnel downsizing at the municipal level »
- Clémence Tricaud (2025)Better Alone? Evidence on the Costs of Intermunicipal CooperationImpact: mixed. « rural municipalities ended up with fewer local public services »
- Federica Galli et al. (2026)Is compulsory inter-municipal cooperation an efficiency booster?Impact: positive. « the RCT law increased municipal efficiency by 1.1% to 1.9% »
- Tidiane Ly and Sonia Paty (2020)Local taxation and tax base mobility: Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the reduction in the mobility of the tax base indeed results in higher business property tax rates »
- Touria Jaaidane and Sophie Larribeau (2023)The effects of inter-municipal cooperation and central grant allocation on the size of the French local public sectorImpact: positive. « cuts in grants lead to cuts in municipalities' public wage bills »
- Touria Jaaidane and Sophie Larribeau (2026)When the money stops: fiscal and political reactions to changing grant eligibilityLeakage: leakage found. « municipalities substitute grants with local tax revenues »
R&D Public order and safety€0mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Housing and community amenities€0mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Recreation, culture and religion€0mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Education€0mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
R&D Social protection€0mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tax expenditures
Smaller tax expenditures, under EUR 200m each€10.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt en faveur de la recherche€7.8bnnot measured
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2019)Évaluation d'impact de la réforme 2008 du crédit impôt rechercheImpact: positive. « nous obtenons des effets positifs de la réforme sur les dépenses de R&D de l'ordre de 15 % à 18 % »
- Vincent Dortet-Bernadet and Michaël Sicsic (2017)L'effet des aides à la R&D sur l'emploi : une évaluation pour les petites entreprises en France / The effect of R&D subsidies and tax incentives on employment: an evaluation for small firms in FranceImpact: positive. « Public R&D support raised R&D employment in small firms »Leakage: leakage found. « s'accompagne d'un effet d'aubaine significatif : selon nos estimations, seulement entre 18 et 34 % du supplément d'aides obtenu par les entreprises entre 2008 et 2010 aurait servi à financer de nouveaux emplois hautement qualifiés »
- Marianna Marino et al. (2016)Additionality or crowding-out? An overall evaluation of public R&D subsidy on private R&D expenditureImpact: neutral. « We find evidence of either no additionality or substitution effects between public and private R&D expenditure. »Leakage: leakage found. « Crowding-out effects appear to be more pronounced for medium-high levels of public subsidies, and generally under the R&D tax credit regime. »
- Emmanuel Duguet (2012)The effect of the incremental R&D tax credit on the private funding of R&D: an econometric evaluation on French firm level dataImpact: positive. « the tax credit adds to the private funding of R&D »Leakage: no leakage found. « 1 Euro of tax credit would give slightly more than one Euro of total R&D »
- Benoît Mulkay and Jacques Mairesse (2013)The R&D tax credit in France: assessment and ex ante evaluation of the 2008 reformImpact: positive. « obtaining a preferred estimate of -0.4 for the long run elasticity of the user cost of R&D capital »Leakage: leakage found. « the implicit long run budget multiplier would be about 0.7 »
- Laurent Bach et al. (2021)Les impacts du crédit impôt recherche sur la performance économique des entreprises (IPP report); Évaluation du crédit d'impôt recherche, Avis de la CNEPI 2021Impact: mixed. « l'étude n'identifie pas d'effet positif significatif des créances du CIR dont elles ont bénéficié en matière de R & D, d'innovation et d'investissement »
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2015)Impact of Research Tax Credit on R&D and Innovation: Evidence from the 2008 French ReformImpact: positive. « a positive effect of the 2008 reform on R&D at both the intensive margin and extensive margin »
- This site: Research tax credit (CIR)Research tax credit (CIR)Impact: neutral. « France's business R&D was 2.6% above its synthetic counterpart in 2008-2012, where one euro of R&D per euro of credit would give 12.2%; ranked among the donor countries, neither zero nor one euro per euro can be rejected (one-for-one p = 15%, the smallest possible being 8%). Researchers per thousand in employment were 9.4% above the synthetic in 2008-2012, ranked first of 10 units (p = 0.10, the smallest possible). »
Crédit d'impôt au titre de l'emploi d'un salarié à domicile€6.4bnnot measurednot measured
- Claire Marbot and Delphine Roy (2011)Services à domicile : quel effet des incitations fiscales ?Impact: positive. « La mise en place de la réduction d'impôt aurait suscité la création de 12 000 à 43 000 emplois en équivalent temps plein »
- Claire Marbot and Delphine Roy (2011)Services à domicile : quel effet des incitations fiscales ? (2007 conversion into a tax credit)Impact: positive. « la mesure aurait suscité la création de 4 000 à 14 000 emplois »
- Claire Marbot (2011)Une évaluation de la réduction d'impôt pour l'emploi de salariés à domicile / An Evaluation of the French Tax Reduction for In-Home ServicesImpact: positive. « la mise en place de la réduction d'impôt a eu un effet significativement positif, de l'ordre de 1,3 à 4,9 points de pourcentage »
- Clément Carbonnier (2009)Réduction et crédit d'impôt pour l'emploi d'un salarié à domicile, conséquences incitatives et redistributivesImpact: positive. « La réaction de la demande est bien significative, mais de faible ampleur. »
- Anne Flipo et al. (2007)Is the household demand for in-home services sensitive to tax reductions? The French caseImpact: positive. « A ten per cent increase in the tax reduction would increase from 45.9 to 50.8 per cent the proportion of households benefiting from the tax reduction »
Exonération partielle, sous certaines conditions, de droits de mutation à titre gratuit lors de la transmission d'entreprises exploitées sous la forme individuelle ou détenues sous forme sociale€5bnnot measurednot measured
- Laurent Bach et al. (2025)L'impact économique des transmissions d'entreprises réalisées avec un pacte Dutreil (IPP); results reported in Cour des comptes, Le Pacte Dutreil : un dispositif fiscal en forte croissance à mieux ciblerImpact: mixed. « L'effet légèrement positif du pacte Dutreil sur la pérennité des entreprises ne se traduit donc pas par une hausse de l'investissement et de l'emploi. »
- Cour des comptes (with IPP) (2025)Le Pacte Dutreil : un dispositif fiscal en forte croissance à mieux ciblerImpact: positive. « Le pacte Dutreil est donc, comme il est attendu, favorable à la pérennité du contrôle familial et à la stabilité de l'actionnariat. »
Abattement de 10 % sur le montant des pensions (y compris les pensions alimentaires) et des retraites€4.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des sommes versées au titre de la participation, de l'intéressement, de l'abondement, d'un partage de plus-value, des primes de partage de la valeur, d’un plan de partage de la valorisation de l’entreprise, aux plans d'épargne salariale et aux plans d'épargne retraite d'entreprise collectifs ou obligatoires€2.9bnnot measurednot measured
- Noélie Delahaie and Richard Duhautois (2019)Profit-Sharing and Wages: An Empirical Analysis Using French Data between 2000 and 2007Leakage: leakage found. « changes in the base wage over this period are lower among firms that have had profit‐sharing for a number of years »
Taux de 10 % pour les travaux d’amélioration, de transformation, d’aménagement et d’entretien, autres que les travaux de rénovation énergétiques soumis au taux de 5,5 % en application de l’article 278-0 bis A, portant sur les logements achevés depuis plus de deux ans€2.2bnnot measured
- Clément Carbonnier (2007)Who pays sales taxes? Evidence from French VAT reforms, 1987-1999Impact: positive. « The consumer share of the sales tax burden is 57% in the new car sales market and 77% in the housing repair services market. »Leakage: leakage found. « 77% in the housing repair services market »
Exonération de l’impôt sur le revenu, sous certaines conditions et limites, des rémunérations versées à raison des heures supplémentaires et complémentaires réalisées à compter du 1er janvier 2019€2.1bnnot measured
- Pierre Cahuc and Stéphane Carcillo (2014)The Detaxation of Overtime Hours: Lessons from the French ExperimentImpact: neutral. « this reform has had no significant impact on hours worked »Leakage: leakage found. « it has had a positive impact on the overtime hours declared by highly qualified wage earners, who have opportunities to manipulate the overtime hours they declare »
Taux de 10% pour la restauration commerciale (consommation sur place et vente à emporter en vue d'une consommation immédiate)€2bnnot measured
- Youssef Benzarti and Dorian Carloni (2019)Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in FranceImpact: neutral. « the effect on consumers was limited »Leakage: leakage found. « the reform mostly benefited owners of sit-down restaurants, who pocketed 41 percent of the tax cut »
Réduction d'impôt au titre des dons€2bnnot measurednot measured
- Gabrielle Fack and Camille Landais (2010)Are Tax Incentives for Charitable Giving Efficient? Evidence from FranceImpact: positive. « the price elasticity of contributions is relatively small, but tends to increase with the level of gifts »
- Gabrielle Fack and Camille Landais (2016)The effect of tax enforcement on tax elasticities: Evidence from charitable contributions in FranceImpact: positive. « the reform was also associated with a substantial decline in the absolute value of the elasticity of reported contributions »
Déduction des dépenses de réparations et d'amélioration€2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif réduit (remboursement ou application dès la facturation) pour les gazoles, les fiouls lourds et les gaz de pétrole liquéfiés utilisés pour les travaux agricoles et forestiers€1.8bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt pour frais de garde des enfants âgés de moins de 6 ans€1.7bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction d'impôt au titre des dons faits par les entreprises à des œuvres ou organismes d'intérêt général€1.6bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des prestations familiales et de l'allocation aux adultes handicapés€1.5bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réductions d'impôt sur le revenu en faveur de l'investissement locatif intermédiaire (dispositifs Duflot et Pinel)€1.5bnnot measured
- Guillaume Chapelle et al. (2018)Impact of a Housing Tax Credit on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from FranceImpact: neutral. « without reducing the production of new housing units »Leakage: leakage found. « the removal of these tax credits decelerated house prices »
- Pierre-Henri Bono and Alain Trannoy (2019)The Impact of the 'Scellier' Income Tax Relief on Building Land Prices in FranceLeakage: leakage found. « point to land price capitalisation »
Réduction du champ de l'accise sur les produits énergétiques à usage carburants, dans les collectivités régies par l'article 73 de la Constitution, aux seuls essences et gazoles et faculté pour ces collectivités de minorer les tarifs€1.5bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taxation au taux de 10% des revenus issus de certains actifs de propriété industrielle€1.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération pour les véhicules de tourisme pour les véhicules hybrides électriques présentant une autonomie en mode tout électrique supérieure à 50 km€1.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Niveau des taux en Guadeloupe, en Martinique et à La Réunion (8,5 % pour le taux normal et 2,1 % pour le taux réduit)€1.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif réduit (remboursement) pour les gazoles utilisés comme carburant par les véhicules routiers de transport de marchandises d'au moins 7,5 tonnes€1.2bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération pour les véhicules dont la source d’énergie est exclusivement l'électricité, l'hydrogène ou une combinaison des deux€1.1bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des intérêts des livrets A€950mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 5,5% pour les travaux d'amélioration de la qualité énergétique des locaux à usage d'habitation achevés depuis plus de deux ans ainsi que sur les travaux induits qui leur sont indissociablement liés€935mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Demi-part supplémentaire, ou quart de part supplémentaire en cas de résidence alternée des enfants à charge, accordée aux parents isolés€849mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction d'impôt sur le revenu à raison des investissements productifs réalisés dans les départements et collectivités d'outre-mer€775mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif réduit des gazoles non routiers autres que celui utilisé pour les usages agricoles€713mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction des émissions, ou de la puissance administrative, prises en compte dans le barème du malus à hauteur de 80 grammes par kilomètre, ou de 4 CV, pour les véhicules comportant au moins 8 places assises dont disposent les personnes morales€700mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 10 % pour les prestations d’hébergement fournies dans le cadre du secteur hôtelier ou de secteurs ayant une fonction similaire et pour les locations de logements meublés à usage résidentiel assorties de prestations annexes€695mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables vivant seuls ayant eu à titre exclusif ou principal, en vivant seuls, la charge d'enfants pendant au moins cinq ans€674mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif réduit pour les gaz naturels consommés comme combustible dans les installations grandes consommatrices d’énergie et soumises au régime des quotas d’émission de gaz à effet de serre du dispositif ETS pour les installations fixes (niveau d'intensité énergétique au moins égal à 3 % en valeur de production ou 0,5 % en valeur ajoutée)€673mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des revenus provenant de l'épargne salariale (participation, plan d'épargne salariale et compartiment épargne salariale des plans d'épargne retraite)€652mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédits d'impôt "Prêt à taux zéro" et "Prêt à taux zéro renforcé PTZ+"€652mnot measured
- Laurent Gobillon and David le Blanc (2008)Economic effects of upfront subsidies to ownership: The case of the Prêt à Taux Zéro in FranceImpact: positive. « the PTZ significantly increases access to ownership by allowing some households to leave the rental sector sooner »Leakage: leakage found. « 85% of the beneficiaries in a 4-year period would still have moved to own in the absence of the subsidy »
Exonérations des produits retirés par les sociétés d'investissements immobiliers cotées, ainsi que par leurs filiales ou des filiales de sociétés de placement à prépondérance immobilière à capital variable ou des filiales conjointes de ces dernières sociétés, et provenant de la location d'immeubles, de la sous-location des immeubles pris en crédit bail ou dont la jouissance a été conférée à titre temporaire par l'Etat, une collectivité territoriale ou leurs établissements publics, de certains droits réels immobiliers et de certaines plus-values de cession€648mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Détermination du résultat imposable des entreprises de transport maritime en fonction du tonnage de leurs navires€625mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des sociétés de placement à prépondérance immobilière à capital variable (SPPICAV)€600mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des indemnités journalières de sécurité sociale servies au titre des maladies "longues et coûteuses"€597mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération ou imposition réduite des produits attachés aux bons ou contrats de capitalisation et d'assurance-vie€582mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 10 % dans le secteur du logement locatif social pour les opérations qui ne sont pas éligibles au taux réduit de 5,5 %€560mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables invalides€523mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération totale pour les prestations et rentes viagères servies aux victimes d'accidents du travail et de maladies professionnelles et à hauteur de 50 % pour les indemnités temporaires€521mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération de la participation des employeurs au financement des titres-restaurant€519mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 5,5 % dans le secteur de l’accession sociale à la propriété et dans le secteur du logement locatif social pour les logements financés par un prêt locatif aidé d’intégration (PLAI), pour les logements financés par un prêt locatif à usage social (PLUS) lorsqu’ils relèvent de la politique de renouvellement urbain, ainsi que pour certains travaux portant sur ces logements ou participant au renouvellement urbain€505mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif particulier pour le superéthanol E85, carburant essence comprenant au moins 65 % d'éthanol€501mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Demi-part supplémentaire pour les contribuables (et leurs conjoints survivants) de plus de 74 ans titulaires de la carte du combattant et pour les conjoints survivants de plus de 74 ans de personnes titulaires de la carte du combattant au moment de leur décès€493mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des dividendes capitalisés sur un plan d'épargne en actions€428mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Tarif réduit pour l’électricité consommée par les entreprises électro-intensives pour les besoins des activités industrielles€428mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Régime spécial d'imposition des assistants maternels et des assistants familiaux régis par les articles L. 421-1 et suivants et L. 423-1 et suivants du code de l'action sociale et des familles€427mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction, dans la limite d’un certain montant, pour les contribuables des départements d’outre-mer de la cotisation résultant du barème (30 % en Guadeloupe, Martinique et Réunion ; 40 % en Guyane et à Mayotte)€426mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des intérêts et primes versés dans le cadre de l'épargne logement€426mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération du salaire des apprentis et des gratifications versées aux stagiaires versées à compter du 12 juillet 2014€424mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération d’impôt sur les bénéfices pour les entreprises créées ou reprises dans les ZRR€411m
- Luc Behaghel et al. (2015)Replacing churches and mason lodges? Tax exemptions and rural developmentImpact: neutral. « We find no impact of the program on employment and wages »
- This site: ZRR rural tax zoneZRR rural tax zoneImpact: mixed. « Entrants' private jobs moved by -7.4% against matched communes by 2025 (95% confidence interval -14.5% to -0.4%), employers by -3.9%: no gain, and falls at the edge of significance, of the order of the drift between the pairs before 2016. On the aims its classification names: population moved by -1.4% between the 2015 and 2021 censuses (95% interval -2.3% to -0.5%), the labour force by -1.9% (-3.2% to -0.7%) and net migration by -11.1 per 1,000 inhabitants (-20.6 to -1.6), but unclassified neighbours moved alike, which points to the area rather than the zone. »Leakage: no leakage found. « Unclassified neighbours within 10 km moved by +2.2% in jobs against far communes (95% confidence interval -3.1% to +7.5%): no displacement can be distinguished from zero. »Permanence: no loss when removed. « Communes that left the zone in 2017 moved by +2.8% in jobs against those that stayed (95% confidence interval -2.0% to +7.7%): a loss of more than 2% is excluded. »
Exonération des organismes d'HLM et des offices publics d'aménagement et de construction (OPAC)€400mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Abattement en faveur des personnes âgées ou invalides de condition modeste€390mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération temporaire des suppléments de rémunération versés aux salariés et mandataires sociaux au titre de l'exercice d'une activité professionnelle en France (primes d'impatriation), de la fraction de leur rémunération correspondant à l'activité exercée à l'étranger et de la rémunération des salariés et dirigeants de la Chambre de commerce internationale€388mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des intérêts des livrets de développement durable€384mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération totale ou partielle des sommes versées aux salariés détachés à l'étranger€369mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt en faveur de l'innovation€330mnot measured
- Simon Bunel and Benjamin Hadjibeyli (2021)Évaluation du crédit d'impôt innovation / An Evaluation of the Innovation Tax CreditImpact: positive. « il est mis en évidence une hausse de l'emploi plus importante à court terme chez les entreprises bénéficiaires du dispositif »Leakage: leakage found. « l'introduction du CII s'est accompagnée d'une baisse des dépenses de recherche déclarées dans le cadre du CIR »
Imposition au taux forfaitaire des prestations de retraite versées sous forme de capital : 12,8 % pour la part correspondant aux produits provenant d'un plan d'épargne retraite ; 7,5 % pour les autres prestations de retraite servies sous forme de capital€328mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 5,5 % applicable aux droits d’entrée dans les théâtres, les cirques, les concerts, les spectacles de variété, les salles de cinéma, les parcs zoologiques et les compétitions de jeux vidéos€315mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération d'impôt sur le revenu (sur option) des salaires perçus par les jeunes au titre d'une activité exercée pendant leurs études secondaires ou supérieures ou leurs congés scolaires ou universitaires€312mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération de la cotisation minimum de CFE des redevables réalisant un très faible chiffre d'affaires€306mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Déduction de précaution€301mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt à raison des investissements productifs réalisés dans les départements d'outre-mer€295mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Déduction exceptionnelle de 40% du prix de revient de certains biens limitativement énumérés, pratiquée sur la durée normale d'utilisation du bien€289mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération sous plafond des indemnités reçues par les salariés en cas de rupture conventionnelle du contrat de travail (ou dispositifs assimilés)€284mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Pertes de récoltes ou de bétail€284mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction d'impôt au titre des frais de dépendance et d'hébergement pour les personnes dépendantes accueillies en établissement spécialisé€270mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d’impôt à raison des investissements effectués dans le secteur du logement social dans les départements d’outre-mer€258mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Dépenses pour faciliter l'accessibilité pour personnes handicapées€248mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération des services rendus aux personnes physiques par les associations agréées en application de l'article L. 7232-1 du code du travail€245mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 10 % pour les ventes et livraisons à soi-même, à des investisseurs dotés de la personnalité morale, de logements locatifs intermédiaires situés dans des zones caractérisées par un déséquilibre important entre l’offre et la demande de logement ou en cours de revitalisation et de réindustrialisation, lorsqu’ils répondent à des critères de mixité avec des logements locatifs sociaux, ainsi que pour les livraisons de logements locatifs intermédiaires à l’association foncière logement, ou aux sociétés qu’elle contrôle, lorsqu’ils sont situés dans des quartiers ciblés de la politique de la ville ou à leur proximité€225mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux de 10 % applicable aux droits d’admission aux expositions, sites et installations à caractère culturel, ludique, éducatif et professionnel ainsi qu’aux loteries foraines€225mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt pour dépenses de production d'œuvres audiovisuelles€224mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction d'impôt pour frais de scolarité dans l'enseignement secondaire€221mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Taux particuliers applicables à divers produits et services consommés ou utilisés en Corse€219mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Réduction d'impôt pour frais de scolarité dans l'enseignement supérieur€217mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exonération partielle de la prise en charge par l'employeur, une collectivité territoriale ou l’opérateur France Travail, des frais de transport entre le domicile et le lieu de travail€217mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt pour dépenses de production exécutive d'œuvres cinématographiques et audiovisuelles étrangères€212mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Crédit d'impôt famille€209mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Smaller tax expenditures with a causal study€158mnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Exemptions from social contributions
General contribution reductions€77.6bnnot measured
- Antoine Bozio et al. (2022)Évaluation d'impact de la bascule du Crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE) en allègement de cotisations employeurImpact: neutral. « aucun effet n'est détecté sur les variables d'emploi, ni de valeur ajoutée, de chiffre d'affaires ou d'investissements, pour les années 2019 et 2020 »
- Antoine Bozio and Étienne Wasmer (2024)Les politiques d'exonérations de cotisations sociales : une inflexion nécessaire (rapport final)Impact: positive. « La politique de réduction des cotisations employeur sur les bas salaires a eu un impact significatif sur l'emploi lors de sa mise en place dans les années 1990. »
- Bruno Crépon and Rozenn Desplatz (2001)Une nouvelle évaluation des effets des allègements de charges sociales sur les bas salairesImpact: positive. « 460 000 emplois auraient été ainsi créés ou sauvegardés dans l'économie, entre 1994 et 1997 »
- Francis Kramarz and Thomas Philippon (2001)The impact of differential payroll tax subsidies on minimum wage employmentImpact: mixed. « Tax subsidies have a small and insignificant impact on entry. »
- Mathieu Bunel and Yannick L'Horty (2012)The Effects of Reduced Social Security Contributions on Employment: an Evaluation of the 2003 French ReformImpact: mixed. « Ultimately, the Fillon reform has had no clear effect on aggregate employment »
- Sophie Cottet (2020)Payroll Tax Reductions for Minimum Wage Workers: Relative Labor Cost or Cash Windfall Effects?Impact: positive. « the number of minimum-wage jobs increases »Leakage: leakage found. « and thus benefit ex ante from a cash windfall »
- Yannick L'Horty et al. (2019)Baisses de charges : stop ou encore ?Impact: mixed. « ont peu d'effets positifs sur les exportations »
- Thomas Breda et al. (2024)Equilibrium effects of payroll tax reductions and optimal policy designImpact: positive. « leads to an overall improvement in economic efficiency by increasing employment »Leakage: leakage found. « with minor negative congestion spillovers »
- Julien Albertini et al. (2025)Payroll Tax Reductions on Low Wages and Minimum Wage in FranceImpact: positive. « reducing payroll tax cuts for low wages would result in declines in both employment and fiscal surplus »
- Pierre Cahuc et al. (2019)The Effectiveness of Hiring CreditsImpact: positive. « the program has had a strong and rapid impact on employment »
- Romain Aeberhardt and David Sraer (2009)Allègements de cotisations patronales et dynamique salarialeImpact: neutral. « low-wage growth for the categories covered by our study did not lose momentum after the introduction of contribution relief »
- Richard Duhautois and Fabrice Gilles (2013)Payroll tax reductions and job flows in FranceImpact: neutral. « our estimates show that PTR let job flows unchanged »
- Bruno Crépon et al. (2004)RTT, productivité et emploi : nouvelles estimations sur données d'entreprisesImpact: positive. « employment in these firms is found to have risen 9.9% compared with the firms that remained on a 39-hour week »
Exemptions from the contribution base€14.9bnnot measurednot measurednot measured
No causal study found for this line.
Other targeted exemptions€9.4bn
- Simon Quantin et al. (2021)Évaluation du dispositif Jeune entreprise innovante (JEI). Un exemple d'application du modèle d'analyse de sensibilité de RosenbaumImpact: positive. « un effet du recours au dispositif JEI sur l'emploi salarié total et dédié à la R&D »Leakage: no leakage found. « qui ne s'accompagne pas d'un effet sur la rémunération versée aux salariés »
- Vincent Dortet-Bernadet and Michaël Sicsic (2017)L'effet des aides à la R&D sur l'emploi : une évaluation pour les petites entreprises en FranceImpact: positive. « l'effet du soutien public sur l'emploi consacré aux activités de R&D est positif et croissant entre 2004 et 2010 »Permanence: lasts. « positif et croissant entre 2004 et 2010 »
Overseas exemptions (LODEOM)€1.5bnnot measurednot measured
- Inspection générale des affaires sociales (IGAS) with IGF (2025)Évaluation des mesures d'exonération de cotisations sociales spécifiques aux outre-merImpact: neutral. « des effets limités sur l'emploi, les salaires et la rentabilité »
What the table says
Impact is often there, but rarely for the whole line. Most lines with studies show a positive effect somewhere: on pensions, most studies find that raising the retirement age keeps people in work; on family benefits, that childcare and parental-leave rules change mothers' work. These are effects of one rule, not of the line's whole budget. For unemployment insurance and minimum income, several studies find that recipients return to work later; others find no effect (see the table).
Few single measures have been studied for leakage; most studies that look for it find it. It takes four recurring forms. Capture by prices: for housing benefit, « one additional euro of housing benefit leads to an increase of 78 cents in the rent paid by new benefit claimants » (Fack, 2006). Windfall: for the zero-rate home loan, « 85% of the beneficiaries in a 4-year period would still have moved to own in the absence of the subsidy » (Gobillon and le Blanc, 2008). Displacement: in the urban enterprise zones, the job gains « résulte[nt] pour les deux tiers d'un déplacement d'activités économiques en provenance de zones non ciblées » (Rathelot and Sillard, 2008). And shifts between schemes: after the 2010 pension reform, « around one fifth in the decrease in public spending is offset by increasing expenses in other public insurance schemes » (Rabaté and Rochut, 2019). None of these offsets appears in the scheme's budget.
Permanence is almost never measured. Fewer than one study in ten says whether the effect outlives the money. Where they do, enterprise zones, job-placement help and speed cameras fade, while training for job seekers, intensive support for young people, early schooling and electronic monitoring last.
Each square is one study, or one of this site's evaluations, coloured by what it found; open a line to read the phrase each verdict rests on. Studies are classified by this site from their quoted findings, in criteria.csv; a line counts a study tied to any of its measures or rules, so a verdict on one rule is not a verdict on the whole line. Goals counts how many of the line's official goals a study has measured, from goals.csv.
All public money
Spending and social outcomes, across countries
Studies measure what one scheme does. Another view sets whole functions against the outcomes they are for, across the 30 European countries in Eurostat's accounts: spending per head on health against life expectancy, on education against learning, on public order against homicides, and all spending against life satisfaction, from Our World in Data. France lives longer than its health spending predicts, against , but its pupils score lower than its education spending predicts, against , and its people are less satisfied with their lives than its total spending predicts, against .
Life expectancy at birth, years
Child mortality, % of births
Harmonised learning outcomes, score
Income inequality, Gini × 100
Homicides per 100,000
Fine-particle exposure, µg/m³
Life satisfaction, 0-10
Show the data as a table
| Function and outcome | Correlation | Given GDP per head | France | Predicted | France's rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health · Life expectancy at birth, years | +0.66 | +1.97 (1.37) | 7 / 30 | ||
| Health · Child mortality, % of births | -0.54 | -0.11 (0.07) | 23 / 30 | ||
| Education · Harmonised learning outcomes, score | +0.46 | +42.16 (17.38) | 20 / 30 | ||
| Social protection · Income inequality, Gini × 100 | -0.25 | -1.24 (2.68) | 18 / 30 | ||
| Public order and safety · Homicides per 100,000 | -0.38 | -0.91 (0.83) | 22 / 30 | ||
| Environmental protection · Fine-particle exposure, µg/m³ | -0.23 | +2.18 (1.46) | 11 / 30 | ||
| All spending · Life satisfaction, 0-10 | +0.83 | +0.84 (0.44) | 14 / 30 |
Reading the panels. Richer countries spend more on everything and do better on almost everything, so most of these slopes are wealth. Holding GDP per head constant, the link with life expectancy halves and is no longer significant; only education keeps a clear one: among countries equally rich, those spending more per pupil score higher. Inequality, homicides and air pollution barely follow the spending on them.
France. None of these comparisons says what any euro does; they show where France stands among countries that spend alike.
Inside France, by département
The same question across the 96 metropolitan départements, with what is published by territory: what communes spend per head, and the State's operating grant to them (DGF), against school results, job growth and income. The DGF goes where income is low, as its equalisation goal intends. Commune spending goes with job growth even at equal income. But what neither explains is itself clustered in space (Moran's I, last column): neighbouring départements do better or worse together, so regional factors, such as the growth of the south and west, may explain these associations, which do not measure the spending's effect.
Show the data as a table
| Spending, outcome | Correlation | Slope given income (s.e.) | Moran's I of residuals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commune spending per head, brevet pass rate | +0.10 | -0.68 (1.16) | 0.14 (p = 0.006) |
| Commune spending per head, private jobs 2015-2024 | +0.47 | +12.74 (3.26) | 0.26 (p = 0.001) |
| DGF per head, income per household | -0.84 | – | 0.20 (p = 0.002) |
| DGF per head, brevet pass rate | -0.07 | +3.00 (0.95) | 0.13 (p = 0.005) |
| DGF per head, private jobs 2015-2024 | -0.25 | +0.84 (3.01) | 0.24 (p = 0.001) |
Each panel puts spending per head on the function, on a log scale, against its outcome; the line is fitted across the 30 countries. Countries: 2015-2022 averages; spending per head is the share of GDP spent on the function (Eurostat, by COFOG, the UN classification of government spending by purpose) times GDP per head at purchasing-power parity (World Bank, via Our World in Data). The correlation is with the log of spending per head; the slope given GDP per head holds national income constant, with its standard error. Départements: 2019-2022 averages of commune accounts (OFGL, the observatory of local public finance), income per tax household (DGFiP, the tax administration), brevet results 2016-2019 (DEPP, the education ministry's statistics office) and private jobs (Urssaf, which collects social contributions); Moran's I uses inverse-distance weights within 250 km, with p from 999 random reshufflings. These are associations, not effects. The code is analysis/outcomes.ml and the data are in results.csv and departements_results.csv.
All public money
What the State says social outcomes are worth
Much public spending aims at outcomes that have no market price, such as health or air quality. The State has its own price list for such outcomes, which every public investment over €20m must use in its socio-economic appraisal: a statistical life is worth , a year of life , an hour of commuting , and a tonne of CO2 avoided in 2025, rising to in 2030.
With these values, an effect measured by a causal study becomes euros of social value, to set against what the line costs, such as lives saved by a health programme or emissions avoided by a subsidy. Health products are assessed in cost per quality-adjusted life year, but the Haute Autorité de santé sets no threshold:
En l’absence de valeur(s) de référence définie(s) pour la France, les résultats sont présentés graphiquement dans un plan bénéfice net / dispositions à payer.HAS, Choix méthodologiques pour l'évaluation économique (2020)
What a temporary effect is worth
At the State's discount rate of a year, a benefit that lasts T years is worth 1 − (1 + r)^−T of the same benefit kept for ever. Five years are worth , ten years , twenty , so an effect that lasts five years instead of ten keeps of its value. This is the carbon method's equivalent permanence for public money: with an impact measured and its decay known, the value of a scheme is its effect, priced at the values above, times the share its duration keeps. Of the studies in the register, only those classed as lasting or fading measure duration at all.
Wellbeing has no French value. The UK Treasury values one point of life satisfaction for one person for one year at £. In France, life satisfaction is one of ten indicators the law asks the government to report beside GDP each year, with no price attached:
Employment rate, 15-64
Research and development
Public debt
Healthy life expectancy at birth, men
Life satisfaction
Income of the top fifth over the bottom fifth
Poverty in living conditions
Early school leavers, 18-24
Carbon footprint, tonnes of CO2e per person
Artificialised land
Values for lives and time are in 2010 euros and grow with GDP per head; the carbon values are the 2025 revision, in 2023 euros. The indicators are Insee's tables for the 2024 report of loi n° 2015-411; the government's own reports after 2015 could not be retrieved. Sources, pages and quotes are in SOURCES.md.
Method
The unit follows the money
To know what a euro of public money achieves, compare what it paid for with what would have happened without it. The comparison needs units that received the money and similar units that did not, and the unit is whatever the money is assigned to: a commune for a zoned tax break, a country for a national tax credit, a level of diploma for a hiring aid, a school for teaching resources.
| Scheme | Compared | Design |
|---|---|---|
| Rural tax zone (ZRR) | Communes | Matched communes; placebo, leakage, permanence |
| Research tax credit (CIR) | Countries | A synthetic France built from OECD countries |
| Apprenticeship hiring aid | Diploma levels, by month | Difference in differences on changes of the aid |
| Priority education (REP, REP+) | Collèges | Matched collèges; entry, exit, placebo |
| France Relance industrial grants | Firms | Matched firms of the same sector; placebo |
| Action cœur de ville, Petites villes de demain, Territoires d'industrie | Communes | Matched communes; placebo |
| Retirement age (pensions) | Age bands, countries | Synthetic France; 60-64 against 55-59 |
Every design carries a test that should find nothing (a placebo), and the page reports when it fails. For matched designs the intervals are 95% confidence intervals with clustered standard errors; the spread across matching draws, which the carbon method reports, is given beside them. Synthetic controls are ranked among placebo countries, and the apprenticeship bands come from the noise between years, as each section says.
Evidence
Evaluated by this site
This site evaluates seven schemes, each on its own page against a comparison group, plus one related study of mayors' party.
ZRR
One tax break, evaluated here
Whether exempting firms from profit tax in the rural revitalisation zones creates jobs in the low-density, low-income communes the zone targets.
Research tax credit
The research tax credit, against a synthetic France
Whether the research tax credit, the largest tax expenditure, raised business research in France.
Apprenticeships
The apprenticeship hiring aid, by level of diploma
How apprenticeship contracts moved when the hiring aid changed, by level of diploma.
Priority education
Priority education, collège by collège
Whether the extra teachers and smaller classes of priority education raise collèges' results.
France Relance
France Relance grants, firm by firm
Whether France Relance industrial grants changed the size or profitability of the firms that won them.
Towns
Programmes for towns and territories
Whether the State's programmes for towns and territories changed jobs and income in the communes they chose.
Retirement age
Retirement age, by age band
How employment at 60 to 64 moved as the minimum retirement age rose under the 2023 reform, now suspended.
A related study: who runs the town
Mayors' party and commune finances
Whether a left or a right mayor changes a commune's spending, debt and jobs.